The State of the Mets
New York Mets Owner Steve Cohen / REUTERS (Illustration by Joe Pantorno/AMNY)
One-Year Change: 9% | Owner: Steve and Alexandra Cohen | Operating Loss: -$138.5 M
The Mets are currently operating at a loss of $138.5M, with a large majority of it ($108.3M) paid towards luxury taxes for going over the threshold. Many fans expect the Cohen family to have no problem going further into the deep end on the balance sheet, but I wouldn’t be so certain. The new owner syndrome could be snuffed out by Cohen’s experience in his 3rd season, with his record breakingly expensive roster sitting 7.0 games out of the Wild Card at writing. As of July 22nd, Fangraphs places their Wild Card chances at 14.4%, 9 days out from the deadline.
This roster is built for short term, high value. The starting rotation is maybe the most top heavy in the league, with a massive drop off after Scherzer, Verlander, & Senga. Senga has become the team’s ace this season, with a 3.36 ERA (3.69 x ERA) over 99 innings so far this year. Verlander and Scherzer have been decent, with 3.39 and 3.51 xERA respectively. The guys at the back end (e.g. Carrasco & Peterson) have been so poor that the rotation is 16th in the MLB (4.46 ERA), despite spending $129M on the staff. This accounts to 37% of the team payroll and is $52M more than the next team (Yankees).
The bullpen, despite going out to get expensive help like David Robertson, is 20th in bullpen ERA (4.23). Some of this is due to top closer Edwin Diaz tearing a tendon in his knee during the WBC, but there has also been regression from guys like Ottavino (2.06 ERA in 2022) and Drew Smith (3.33 in 2022). They need to make an effort to lengthen the bullpen this offseason through extensions, signings, trades, and potentially a few call ups.
On the offensive side, guys like Lindor (3.2 fWAR in 2023) and Nimmo (2.8 fWAR in 2023) have been good on the heels of large extensions, but Pete Alonso has been terrible for two months. Pete is hitting .120 in July after hitting .152 in June, and I believe he’s hurt. The situation gets a little more complicated, as he is a FA after next season and will command somewhere in the range of $25M/year. Francisco Alvarez looks like a franchise player to build around both at the plate and behind it, while there are some reinforcements coming offensively (Vientos, Mauricio, etc.) The problem is there is not enough pitching in the system and the Mets are spending way too much money to be mediocre.
The Mets finished 3rd in the NL East in 2021, and lost last year’s Wild Card series to the Padres. The 2022 Mets did crest 100 wins, but this roster is very different one year later. They lost Degrom, Bassitt, and Walker in the rotation, and Scherzer has not been nearly as dominant in 2023 (2.29 ERA in 2022). Additionally, Starling Marte has been terrible this year (.254/.308/.332), as has Jeff McNeil (.247/.324/.323). I think it is important to recognize that this roster lost a lot of top pitching talent, and carries several underperformers. How long can the Cohen family lose $100M+ a year? Maybe they don’t care, but it’s not a great business plan unless they start to see some results.
There is a solid case for the Mets to cut their losses here on the rentals, contingent on what happens in the next week or so. I get moving guys like Canha, Pham, and Robertson but personally would recommend holding on to Verlander and Scherzer. The Mets owe them a lot of money, but what choice do they really have? They would have to eat a good portion of the 2024 salaries, and execs know you can’t go into the season with only 1 or 2 proven starters. Where will the Mets be if they move Verlander and Scherzer? They won’t be competitive in a tough NL East unless they are able to do very well in the winter meetings and maybe even get Yamamoto from across the Pacific if he is indeed posted by Orix.
Mr. Cohen presumably doesn’t want to lose $100M+ annually, but he also wants to win and it simply doesn’t make sense to blow up the team right now. They have a window of 2-3 years of contention in my opinion. They blew 2023, and it is time to look to 2024 to get back to last year’s roster (more pitching would be a great start). Main focuses should be extending the rotation, getting Diaz back to health, and getting Pete extended. There will be a natural fork in the road for the Mets, this time next season. Verlander, Scherzer, and Pete will all be free agents. It could be an opportunity to bolster a playoff team in the 2024 deadline, or have a yard sale to get back in the green on the balance sheet for 2025. Their 2024 payroll is already about $20M over the tax threshold for next year, but they have a chance to get below the $233M mark for 2025 (currently projected at $155M). The franchise strategy for the next five years or so will be predicated on what happens with the 2024 Mets.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/
*Stats are as of 7/22/23