PC Top 5 DH in the MLB

Shohei Ohtani of the L.A. Dodgers *(ESPN)*

In February 2022, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred announced the universal Designated Hitter (DH) rule. Many criticized it, but I think it’s been a success as a whole. The pitching has simply gotten too advanced, and teams are utilizing so many different arms in a game that it’s nearly impossible for a starting pitcher to hit. Pitchers hit .103 in 2021, so it goes without saying it became more of a buzzkill than a stimulating game strategy to watch the starting pitcher hit for your favorite team. The DH rule was strictly in the American League only for 49 years, starting in 1973 when Tony Oliva hit the 1st HR as a DH against Catfish Hunter. Since then, the designated hitter rule has been the biggest difference between the two leagues, and the universal DH rule bridges the gap between the two leagues even more to the point where they’re basically indistinguishable. Some teams opt to use the DH as an open spot in the lineup to rest veterans from playing their defensive position, while others prefer to have an everyday DH occupy the lineup slot. One thing that is becoming more common with the universal DH is the DH platoon, when one guy hits left-handed pitching and the other hits righties (e.g. the Diamondbacks plan to platoon Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk in 2024). The most unfortunate scenario is when you’re playing a mediocre aging veteran everyday at DH simply because you’re writing a $40M check every year anyway so you have to play him. The DH position can provide roster flexibility, rest for veterans, or consistent offense, but rarely all three.

5) Jorge Soler, San Francisco Giants

Fresh off of a 36 homer season, Jorge just signed a three year contract with the Giants for $42M guaranteed. Soler led the league with 48 home runs in 2019, a season in which many think MLB juiced the balls to facilitate more runs. From 2020-2022, “El Yoyo” hit .219/.312/.425 with a 99 OPS+, not great for a guy whose value comes entirely from his offense. 2023 was another monster season, including a .688 SLG vs lefties which was best in baseball. Soler is consistently a beast against lefties, but he’s effective enough against righties. Since he can be penciled in against both righties and lefties, that makes him more valuable than platoon hitters like Randal Grichuk or Joc Pederson. You don’t want him playing left everyday, but he won’t kill you if he’s playing out there one or two days a week. That gives the Giants added versatility, where you can give JD Davis or Lamonte Wade a day off in the field. Steamer projects Jorge to hit .242 with 32 HR and 91 RBI, which would make him the first 30 homer hitter in San Francisco since Barry Bonds.

2023 MLB Leaders vs Left Handed Pitching *(Fangraphs)*

4) Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves

Obviously, Ozuna has had off the field issues and legal issues. He also had a few bad years on the field before 2023. He had a dismal start last year as well, hitting .085/.194/.203 in April before going on an absolute tear for the rest of the year. In fact, Ozuna was 5th in the NL by wRC+ after the All Star break, with a 168 wRC+ and 23 homers in only 71 games. Ozuna is almost strictly a DH at this point, long gone (and short lived) are the days of Gold Glove Marcell Ozuna. Eventill, the 33 year old DH doesn’t need to field to be an effective ball player, especially when he’s hitting 40 bombs a year. That may not happen again in 2024, but I do think Marcell is a great bet for another 30/100 season in this loaded Braves lineup. He’s listed 4th here despite his monster 2023 partially due to his age, but mainly due to this inconsistency (.222/.278/.397 for the two years following his 2020 season that garnered MVP votes).

2023 2nd NL Leaders in wRC+ *(Fangraphs)*

3) Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

The emergence of Johan Rojas has pushed Brandon Marsh to LF, and thankfully moves Schwarber over to DH full time. We expect 40 Schwarber bombs a year, especially since Kyle has hit the most home runs in the National League since signing with the Phillies two years ago. He’s also tied for 2nd in the NL during that time with a 15.3% BB rate, only behind Juan Soto, who obviously is now in the AL. Schwarber is a three outcome guy, lots of K’s, walks, and home runs. His K rate is 29.9% in his last two seasons, and he’s only hit .207. He’s also borderline unusable in the outfield, and I wouldn’t expect the warts to disappear for a 31 year old veteran. It’s an unusual recipe for a leadoff hitter, but Philly loves him and his big home runs. ZIPS projects him for 38 homers, while Steamer projects 42 dingers. He’ll probably finish in that vicinity, with a ton of walks and a near Mendoza-line batting average.

2) Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

The argument for Shohei the hitter is the same as the one for Shohei the pitcher, just look at his Baseball Savant page (below). It’s true that Ohtani won’t be pitching until 2025, but the surgery shouldn’t have a negative impact on his offense. In fact, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of Ohtani posting career offensive numbers since he won’t have to think about getting on the mound for a year. Last season, Shohei was 99th percentile in xwOBA, 99th in average exit velocity, and 100th in barrel rate. He had the highest wOBA and wRC+ in all of baseball, and hit 44 taters before being shut down for the year. If that wasn’t enough, Ohtani was also the ace of the Angels and put up one of the finest performances over an MLB season that we’ve ever seen. Obviously the $700M deal is historic, but I’m even more excited to watch Shohei get back into the batters box now that the sweepstakes are finally over. I don’t expect Shohei to hit .304 again, since he does have swing and miss in his profile. However, I expect 40 HR and 120 RBI from the best hitter in one of the most superstar laden lineups we’ve seen this century. Freeman, Betts, and Shohei have 4 MVP awards between, and you could make the argument that Mookie should have two. The worst part about Shohei going to the Dodgers is it was so predictable, but the best part is we can easily predict Shohei will play in the playoffs almost every single year in the foreseeable future. I’ll take that tradeoff.

2023 Shohei Ohtani Hitting Performance *(Baseball Savant)*

1) Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Yordan is the best left handed hitter in the major leagues right now, while there is an argument for Ohtani, especially if you’re applying weight toward 2023. However, when you take 2022 and 2023 together, Yordan was 78% better than the average big league hitter, while Ohtani was 60% better. Alvarez walked more, struck out less, while posting a higher isolated power and batting average over the last two seasons. Obviously, Shohei is way more valuable when you consider his pitching ability, but Yordan is a marginally scarier hitter in my book. .300/.400/.600 hitters are typically Hall of Fame hitters if they do it for more than a couple years, and that’s the kind of production Alvarez has been producing. ZIPS expects more of the same, with a .298/.393/.592 projected line for 2024. The projection systems see Yordan as a 5.0 fWAR player, despite barely playing in the field. Only special hitters can post 5 win value as a DH, but Alvarez is your guy if you're looking for a premium left handed bat.