2024 PC Top 5 Right Fielders in the MLB

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Atlanta Braves *(MLB)*

The reader will probably notice a familiar player from a previous list in this article. Corbin Carroll was on our original Top 5 LF list, prior to our edit earlier today. The reason for the change is Roster Resource’s projection for the Diamondbacks outfield alignment. While it is true that Corbin has one of the weaker arms in the NL West, he projects as a right fielder, largely due to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. being brought back to Arizona, and perhaps partially due to Joc Pederson being signed on a one year deal at the beginning of the month. I set the precedent with my argument for placing Aaron Judge on the center field list, that we would rank players based on where their playing time is, rather than where I think they should play or what position suits them the most. When you evaluate a position like right field, you do have to factor in the defense, particularly the arm, on balance with the offense. It’s not as bad defensively as center field, though Fernando Tatis Jr. disagrees, but it’s an important one nonetheless, where many tough catches and long throws have to be made. The offensive profile to succeed in an outfield corner is a high standard– right fielders in totality hit .250/.322/.432 in the MLB with a 105 wRC+ (5% over the positionless league average). Two good examples of average right fielders with different profiles are Alex Verdugo and Teoscar Hernandez. Verdugo was a GG finalist in 2023, but only hit 13 home runs last year despite accruing over 600 plate appearances. Teoscar had a down year for the Mariners, hitting 26 HR and driving in 93, yet only hit .258. He finished with a 1.8 fWAR to Verdugo’s 2.0 fWAR, because he’s a mediocre right fielder and Verdugo is excellent with the glove. Bottom line, there are multiple paths to value. Each of these guys are about the same value: one is a good overall player while one guy cranks home runs, strikes out a ton, and struggles in the field.

5) Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers

Adolis was the hero in the 2023 ALCS, hitting 5 home runs against the Astros and taking home the ALCS MVP. He’s come through in big moments more than once, slugging a ridiculous .726 SLG in the Postseason last year. Garcia was certainly a late bloomer, acquired by the Texas Rangers for not a lot of cash. At the time of the trade, he was a 26-year-old outfielder who couldn’t crack the Cardinals major league roster. While coming up for a few games here and there, Garcia spent a lot of time in AAA, posting a career .299 OBP in Memphis while showing 30 HR power. The Rangers saw that power and took a risk on him. This was probably close to the best possible outcome for both Texas and Adolis, as the Rangers likely would not have beaten the Astros in the ALCS without him. Now Garcias has had three consecutive good years, and just signed a two year extension that guarantees him at least $14M over the next two years, with the potential for $20M+ million if he hits his incentives.

Garcia is projected for less than 3.0 fWAR by all of the projection systems below, despite coming off of a GG season with a 4.8 fWAR and 39 HR. He’s also never had an output of less than 3 wins in a full MLB season, so I think it’s fair to say the projection systems are underestimating him here. The strikeouts will be there, but Garcia’s walk rate was a career high 10.3% last season. Though the reader can likely glean from the GG he received, we can note the 23 DRS and 8.4 UZR/150 that Adolis has put forth so far in his career as a right fielder. He’s the right choice for 5th and I don’t think there’s really an argument for anyone else unless you’re expecting significant regression from Garcia and breakout year from Seiya Suzuki or Lars Nootbaar.

Adolis Garcia Season Stats and Projections *(Fangraphs)*

4) Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros

Prospects TL;DR 2019: “Tucker's short major league debut did not go well, but most scouts still think there's an above average everyday player in there, one with a shot at stardom if it all clicks.” (Fangraphs) It certainly did click for Kyle Tucker and he’s more than just an above everyday player; he’s played at an All Star level since his rookie season in 2020. Tucker’s path to stardom culminated in 2023, when he finished one homer shy of a 30-30 year, and finished 5th in the AL MVP race. He was also the best right fielder in the American League last year, sans Aaron Judge, who is slated for center field in New York. While Tucker had a negative UZR and OAA in 2023, he has a reputation of having a good glove, backed by his career 32 DRS in the corner. Kyle has the rare set of tools that includes high walks, low K’s, power and speed. Only a handful of guys have all of the above, and it’s a big component of what sets Tucker apart from the pack. He may never hit 40 HR and win a batting title, but he’s not a liability in any phase of the game. The fact that his wOBA was 15 points below his expected (.387) last year is a bonus indicating he was even better than his surface results indicate. Steamer projects Tucker for a 4.8 fWAR, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle took another step forward in his career, as he edges closer toward his free agency after the 2025 season. Even if he merely maintains his current performance, he’s in for a massive payday.

3) Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

To reiterate my point in the intro, I had to place Corbin on the right list, which is right field. As I mentioned in the left field article, Corbin won the ROY voting last season, and found himself in the World Series as the star of his team all in one year. Corbin stole 54 bags and hit 25 HR in his rookie year, posting a 6.0 fWAR, the 3rd highest in the MLB among right fielders. ZIPS has him projected for a 4.6 fWAR in 2024, with 22 HR and 39 SB. Though his bat is electric, he also can be relied on for 40+ stolen bases a year, and one of the few five tool players at the position, highlighted by his 30.1 ft/sec speed. Because he runs like a cheetah, Corbin can likely be at least an average defender in right, even with a weaker arm. Nevertheless, I expect a bit of offensive regression based on expected numbers from 2023, while ZIPS and other projection systems feel the same. Last year, Carroll was expected to slug .441, but his real number was .506. He was also expected to hit .268, but finished with a .285 batting average. Corbin could see more power as he fills out, and going from 25 homer power to 35 home power would make him a perennial MVP candidate. Even if he doesn’t see that kind of uptick of over the wall power, Carroll has a few different paths to eventually winning an MVP.

2) Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

When examining the ZIPS projections for right field, Tatis Jr. is behind the reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., and that’s with Tatis Jr. coming off of a down year. Acuna Jr. tore his ACL in July 2021, and clearly didn’t have his legs under him yet in early 2022 and finished with a 2.2 fWAR. 2022 was his worst year, and he followed it up with an MVP season in 2023. Tatis Jr. could have a similar trajectory in 2024 that Acuna Jr. had last year, coming off of an ankle injury and a failed PED test in 2022 before a down year in 2023 at the plate. Though the offensive production was down, he won a Platinum glove in right field despite spending his entire career at shortstop on the infield dirt. Fernando also hit 25 HR and stole 29 bases, while also producing a .368 xwOBA compared to his actual .332 wOBA. For context, Tatis Jr. finished 10th in the NL in expected weight on base average, despite the final results being disappointing. Tatis Jr. is only 25, has tremendous potential offensively, was the best fielder in the National League last year, and will likely be the best glove in the right field in 2024 as well. We’ve seen the 40 HR power, and we’ve seen the stolen base ability and elite glove. He also managed to cut his strikeouts down from 2022, while finishing 90th percentile in hard hit rate and 89th percentile in average exit velocity in what is considered a down year for a guy with superstar potential like Tatis Jr. Acuna Jr. proved to everyone that he hadn’t hit his ceiling yet despite his ACL injury, and I expect a 25 year old Tatis Jr. to have a massive year. He’s my dark horse for the NL MVP this year.

2023 Tatis Jr. Performance *(Baseball Savant)*

1) Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

He’s an MVP, World Series champion, the 1st guy to ever steal 70 and hit 40 in the same year, and he also cut his strikeout rate in half to 11.4%, which is highly unusual for a veteran. Even though Acuna’s .428 wOBA was the best in the league, his .463 xwOBA is historic. When Aaron Judge broke the AL home run record in 2022, he had a .463 xwOBA. Ronald is not a good defender, but he doesn’t need to be with a 170 wRC+. I’d say it’s unlikely he steals 70 in a year again, when you consider Acuna Jr. has the same foot speed as Jake Burger and Wil Myers, at 28 feet/sec. There are about 200 guys in the league who are faster than Ronald, yet Acuna Jr. was the only guy to steal 70 bags last year with the new rules, and that’s an amazing accomplishment. Acuna is only 26, a year older than Tatis Jr., and the face of the best team in baseball. He’s the favored NL MVP candidate for 2024 as the reigning winner, and for good reason. He has the 40 homer power, the knack for base stealing, he racks up hits at a prodigious rate and regularly gets on base at .400 clip. The projection systems love him, probably partially because of his low K rate and contact ability. Evenstill, the ZIPS projection of 7.5 seems aggressive considering he only has one year with a fWAR over 5.4, and it was his MVP season. He may well go back to back, but it is a tall task to repeat a 40-70 season when you consider it had never been done.