The Reds are Ready to Emerge
Elly de la Cruz (L) and Joey Votto (R) of the Cincinnati Reds (WSJ)
The last time the Cincinnati Reds won a playoff was 2012, which coincidentally was also the last time they won their division. They lost a tight NLDS 3-2 against the eventual World Series champion Giants, and have not finished higher than 3rd place in the NL Central since. From 2015 to 2018, Cinci finished last in the division four years in a row. Fast forward to 2023, and the young Reds core looks very promising. The offense led by Matt McLain and Spencer Steer scored 783 runs, which was good enough for 9th in the MLB. Though the club did strike out at a pretty high rate of 24.2%, these kids finished 9th in the league with a .325 wOBA, ahead of star studded lineups like Toronto and San Diego. Lastly, the Reds won games with their speed, as their 190 stolen bags were 1st in the MLB by a wide margin (Arizona was 2nd with 166). This speed and base stealing ability is not a fluke either, in fact they’re a strong bet to surpass that number in 2024, if only examining the possibility of 150+ games from Elly De La Cruz this year. All time great Joey Votto has left the Reds after being the face of their organization since his MVP back in 2010. Joey was “Votto-matic” for years, and was the star of the Reds for over a decade and a half, including their last competitive window, when they won the division in both 2010 and 2012. As the Reds enter a new era post Joey Votto, who will be the new face of the franchise?
Most national baseball fans looking in would probably tell you Elly De La Cruz, and perhaps Reds fans would too. Elly is a human highlight reel, including, but not exclusive to, being the fastest player in the game. He has an elite 3.67 sec mark for 90 ft and a 2.70 sec mark for 60 feet from the left side of the plate; both are best in baseball. From the right side (yes he’s also a switch hitter), he has the 4th best numbers in the league, behind himself, Corbin Carroll, and a 5th outfielder known for his speed, Dairon Blanco. He stole 35 bags in 98 games last year, and has a good chance to steal 50 if he plays 150 games this year. Fans are also enamored with his cannon arm, serious range at short, and the missiles he can launch from his bat when he reaches max exit velocity. De La Cruz will need to cut down on his strikeouts, with a 33.7% rate in 2023, which ranked in the 3rd percentile. ZIPS projects a 29.2% K rate in 2024, with a .247 batting average and 26 homers. Though that only translates to a 98 wRC+ projection, Elly’s ability at short makes him a 3 fWAR player if he’s even average at the plate. He just turned 22, and has perhaps the best chance to be a superstar of any player on this stacked Reds roster. He’s certainly not the only young infielder with substantial potential.
2023 MLB Sprint Leaders (Baseball Savant)
De La Cruz is joined by Matt McLain in the middle infield, a natural shortstop who put up an .864 OPS and finished top 5 in NL ROY voting last year. Matt put up a 3.7 bWAR in only 89 games and was not only better than Elly in 2023, he was the best player on the Reds. Furthermore, the Reds have yet another talented shortstop in Noelvi Marte, acquired as the headliner in the Luis Castillo deal made at the 2022 trade deadline. Marte is not as good as De La Cruz at shortstop and did not rate well at the hot corner last year. However, Marte is a good athlete and has played less than 100 professional games at third, so he’s got a shot at average results there once he gets enough reps. Evenstill, the Reds are excited about the bat, not the defense. Noelvi is well rounded with 60 raw power that he hasn’t completely tapped into yet and he’s a .282 hitter with a career .367 OBP. If he can replicate that in the majors, he’ll be a top of the order bat even if he never develops the 30 HR power that many scouts believe he’s capable of. The final guy in the infield for 2024 is also their major news free agent signing, Jeimer Candelario. The Reds rarely sign a star in free agency, and even now, Candelario is not a star. However, he’s only 30, and he’s posted a 3.8 fWAR season in 2021, and a 3.3 fWAR season in 2023, sandwiching a lost campaign in 2022. Candy is projected for 111 wRC+ by ZIPS in 2024, and that’s a fair projection considering his terrible year in 2022. Still, when he’s right he can put up a wOBA in the .340-.350 range as a well rounded hitter that can make contact, draw walks, and hit about 20 HR a year. Fangraphs does project him to play some 3B still, but he should play more 1B as time goes on. He’s got fine range, but arm strength in the 22nd percentile that becomes exposed when playing third base. Even as a first baseman, he can be a 2.0 WAR player for the next couple years at a reasonable price of $15M a year, Candy is a nice pickup by Nick Krall.
2024 Reds Projected Lineup (Fangraphs)
One thing the Candelario signing did do was make both Reds fans and outsides speculate on trades for guys like Jonathan India and Spencer Steer. The Reds seem to have a million infielders, and I expect both India and Steer to play some left field in 2024. Steer is going to be bad out there anywhere you put him, but he’s a legit middle of the order bat. India isn’t good at 2B, and probably won’t be good in left field either. Many think of the Jonathan India that won the ROY award back in 2021, but he’s been pretty underwhelming since. The Reds say they’ll play him at three infield positions, as well as left field. If he can hack it as a utility infielder, he’ll have a prime opportunity to prove he can re-produce his 2021 results. TJ Friedl, the Reds 2023 bWAR leader, will lead off and play center this year following his late bloomer breakout season. Will Benson also had a nice rookie campaign, and will have the right field job going into opening day. On the bench, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jake Fraley will likely sit, but both could get 500 at bats on other major league teams. Encarnacion-Strand has 30 HR power but no defensive home, while Fraley is one of the better 4th outfielders in the National League. Finally, Tyler Stephenson is behind the plate, likely eager for a healthy and productive season after an underwhelming 2023 season. Every guy in this lineup has the potential for 20 HR, and many also have the ability to steal 20 bags. This offense was middle of the road overall in 2023 (8th of 15 teams in NL with 98 wRC+), and that seems to be the floor for this year unless there are multiple major injuries. If everything clicks, the Reds could surpass the Cubs and Cardinals as the best offense in the NL Central.
The pitching staff finished 13th in the NL last year with a 4.83 ERA, including finishing 14th with a 5.43 ERA from the starting rotation. The starting pitching held this young Reds team back from a better year, and home runs (1.67 per 9) held them back from being successful. The young guys struggled with injuries and inconsistency, including Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft gave up 23 HR in 26 starts, while Nick only started 7 games. Their veterans, including Ben Lively, Luis Cessa, and Luke Weaver, got killed last year and failed to deliver the back end starter production that GM Nick Krall was hoping for. Hunter Greene, fresh off a 6 year extension, delivered underwhelming results despite a 30.5% K rate. Young lefty Nick Lodolo is another promising arm in the Reds org, and he’s the only of the four that stayed healthy and got decent overall results, finishing with a 3.87 ERA in 21 starts. The Reds will run it back with these four guys, while also bringing in veterans Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. Frankie is three years removed from a monster season in 2021, when he finished 6th in the AL Cy Young for Oakland. After getting traded at the deadline in 2022, things went very poorly in New York largely due to injuries. The Reds get to take a shot at him coming off of shoulder surgery, for only $16M on a one year prove it deal. Nick Martinez, on the other hand, doesn’t have the upside or ceiling that Frankie has. Martinez hasn’t started more than 18 games since 2015, but he’s an effective swingman who can come out of the bullpen or start. Most years, he ends up filling in temporarily for the starting pitching staff and performing well. In 2023, Nick had a 2.32 ERA as a starter in 42.2 innings, and a 4.12 in 67.2 innings as a reliever. Many execs talk about how you need 7 or 8 starts these days to start the year, and the Reds have #6 and #7 in Lodolo and Brandon Williamson. This unit may be top of the league in 2024, but it’s almost sure to outperform results last season.
2024 Reds Starting Pitching Staff (Fangraphs)
Finally, in the bullpen, the unit as a whole finished 16th in the MLB and 8th in the NL with a 4.11 ERA. Edwin Diaz’s younger brother Alexis finished with 37 saves and a 3.07 ERA, down numbers from his rookie year. Diaz had support from both backend and front end, including guys like Ian Gibaut, Sam Moll, Derek Law, and Lucas Sims. Though the Reds bullpen wasn’t bad last year, the Reds front office didn’t get complacent and just ran it back. They added Emilio Pagan and Brent Suter to an improved pen that should be able to support its starting rotation more than it was able to do last season. When you put it all together, the Reds have what it takes to challenge the Cubs for the NL Central crown. Their viability for a Postseason run will largely depend on both the growth rate of their young core, as well as how aggressive Cincinnati gets at the deadline if they are indeed still a threat for the Postseason by August. The Diamondbacks showed that a team can go from irrelevance to competing for a World Series in just one year, particularly with a concentration of young talent. This argument was laid out by Brittany Ghiroli of the Athletic in a recent piece, breaking down both how young guys are making such an impact and also what it means to the game. I think it means excitement, as well as relevance to the larger sports market in the macro. The Reds are a part of that, and I'd love to see the Big Red Machine firing on all cylinders in October.
https://theathletic.com/5256344/2024/02/13/mlb-minor-young-stars-impact/
*Stats are as of 2/16/24