2024 PC Top 5 Center Fielders in the MLB

Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels (*Gary Vazquez/USA Today)*

Center field is the premium position of the outfield. Many of the league's best players and all time greats have patrolled center field, including Willie Mays, Mike Trout, and Ken Griffey Jr. The demand on the body is substantial and the decline in athleticism that occurs from father time is completely exposed in positions like center field, where you are asked to track down balls and make plays most outfielders can’t. If you can find a center fielder that can play the position like Brenton Doyle or Michael A. Taylor, you may be willing to ignore warts for a while due to the significant difficulty of the position. Doyle himself is proof of this, with ridiculous defensive metrics that support an argument for Doyle as the best outfield glove in the league, paired with a somewhat paradoxical 35% K rate. Doyle is a terrible hitter, and not one of Major League quality, but his defense is good enough to balance the scales for the Rockies. You can find a star player who is good enough, but not great in center field (e.g. Bryan Reynolds before his move to left field a couple of years ago). It is not uncommon to settle for a below average glove in center, since it’s so difficult to find a .700 OPS hitter among the guys who can get to all the balls you need your CF to get to. That’s what makes a player like Andruw Jones or Ken Griffey Jr. special, the same characteristics that make Luis Roberts and Julio Rodriguez must watch baseball.

5) Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves

I've had a harder time with some #5 spots more than others, and I really hated to keep Brandon Nimmo off this CF list. Nimmo is an above average center fielder, but Michal “ Money Mike” Harris II is even better. Brandon Nimmo has a .356 wOBA in the last two seasons, compared to Harris II’s .355 wOBA figure. The Braves’ 2022 ROY winner has a career 4.7% BB rate compared to Nimmo’s 10.7 BB% over that timespan. However, Harris has hit .295, stolen 40 bags to Brandon’s 6, and played better defense. Lastly, while Nimmo is likely facing regression into his thirties, Money Mike is only 23 years old and still getting better. The hit tool is strong, the speed is elite, and the defense is really good. I wouldn’t be surprised if he unlocked some power as he fills out in his mid twenties. Perhaps most encouraging was his recovery from a terrible 1st half. After posting an underwhelming .725 OPS, Harris rebounded with an .878 OPS after the AS break. He hit .325 with 23 doubles and 9 home runs over 71 games in the 2nd Half. I expect 2024 to look more like the post AS break Harris than the 1st H. ZIPS feels the same, actually projecting Harris at 4.2 fWAR, higher than Roberts Jr, and Brandon NImmo. ZIPS also expects a 20-20 campaign from Mike, with a .342 wOBA.

4) Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Mike is an all time great. If these rankings were based on performance over 162 games, Trout would be 2nd or 3rd, even though he’s getting deeper into his thirties. However, we have to factor in the injuries and lack of durability, as Trout has only played in 79 games a year over the last three years. No doubt, Trout is a superstar, he’s just a superstar that’s constantly hurt playing on an irrelevant team. Despite a 162 OPS+ from 2021-2023, Trout has only averaged 22 HR 47 RBI a year over that time due to lack of availability. I feel strongly that Mike should be moved to a corner outfield spot to try to keep him on the field. That’s unlikely to happen though, unless Trout wants to move to a corner himself. His per 162 game averages have him hitting 40+ HR over a full season, and he still gets on base at a .380 clip even if the base stealing threat is basically gone at this point. I’d like to see Trout play in meaningful October games as an all time great, but I suspect a trade would have to occur for us to see in the next few years, and the Angels insist that no trade will happen. That said, these front offices are full of MBA’s and lawyers, so we shouldn’t take their PR statements too seriously. What if Trout did find his way to Philly or New York? That’d be a cool thing to see, if the Angels are willing to play ball and Arte Moreno sees a chance to save some payroll (Trout is 32 and owed $248.2M for the remainder of his extension).

3) Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox

Robert Jr. had a monster year in 2023, hitting 38 homers, stealing 20 bags, and playing spectacular defense. Luis was a 60 FV prospect back in 2020 according to Fangraphs, with a 65 raw power, 70 grade speed, and 60 field. He’s lived up to those figures, and his 15.4% barrel rate was 93rd percentile in 2023. Many scouts had concerns about his contact tool, and those doubts have been validated with a 40.5% chase rate and 33.5% whiff rate last season. Luis has managed to hit .279 in his career, but that number is likely unsustainable unless he can cut down on the chase and whiff rates. Though the swing and miss numbers were ghastly in 2023, his K rate prior to that was around 20%. ZIPS projects a 4.1 fWAR, with a 24.2% K rate and a .267/.320/.496 slash line, quite similar to his 2023 line, .264/.315/.542. Since entering the MLB in 2020, Robert Jr. is 7th in the MLB in OAA while playing center field. If he can hit 30-35 HR and hit .280, he’s an MVP candidate with his elite 28.7 ft/sec foot speed and solid center field defense. We should all hope for a banner first half for Luis, to give Chicago White Sox fans something to look forward to, and for the rest of the league to anticipate the inevitable trade to a contending team that could use a star center fielder with four years of club control.

Luis Roberts 2023 Performance *(Baseball Savant)*

2) Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Julio could be #1 here, if not for a position change for our top center fielder. In the last two years since Julio’s debut, he’s won the ROY, 2X Silver Sluggers, two top 10 MVP finishes, and 2X All Star appearance. He also averaged 30 HR and 31 SB from 2022-2023, while hitting .279 and patrolling a spacious center field in T-Mobile. In totality, Rodriguez has the 2nd highest WAR for his position behind only Aaron Judge, who’s the best hitter in baseball right now. Julio is also still getting better and looks like a strong candidate for a top 5 MVP finish, if not a real shot at winning the award entirely. He’s a 5 tool player, ranked 95th percentile in hard hit rate (52%) and average exit velocity (92.7 MPH) in 2023. ZIPS has him projected for a 5.7 fWAR with 33 HR and 33 SB each in 2024. It’s hard to believe J-Rod is only 23 years old, but he’s clearly still getting better after a historic start to his young career. He’s already drawing comps to all time greats, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him exceed his 5.7 fWAR projection and enter that rarified MVP stratosphere.

2022-2023 WAR Leaders Among CF *(Fangraphs)*

1) Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

While I heartily disagree with putting Aaron Judge in CF, mostly due to the injury risk, I have to put Judge in center since the Yankees plan on playing him there for 2024. They did acquire Trent Grisham in the Soto trade, but Verudgo needs everyday at bats, which presumably pushes Judge over from right to center field. Judge would be #1 for me at any position, because he’s the best player in the league, at least in the interim. The injuries are piling up, he’s a big guy, and he’s turning 32 in April. Still, over the last two years, Aaron Judge is the best hitter in baseball by a mile. Yordan is right there after at #2, and then there is another country mile before you get closer to guys like Shohei and Freddie Freeman in the 160 wRC+ range. A ridiculous .443 wOBA is helped by breaking the AL HR record of course, but Judge also lost at bats from the freak injury at Dodger Stadium back in June 2023. Despite having almost 300 less PA’s than Freddie Freeman, he has 99 HR to Freddie’s 50 over the last two seasons. It’s also worth noting that Aaron walks at a preposterous 17.2% rate, and has hit .293 since the beginning of 2022. He’s been a monster since he broke into the league seven years ago, but he’s taken it to another level in the last couple of years. The Yankees are playing with fire putting their superstar in center field full time, especially when you consider he’s edging further into his thirties. Still, Judge carried the Yankees last year, and he’ll likely put the team on his back again in 2024. It’s gonna be cool to see two of the league’s best hitters in the same lineup at Yankee Stadium, even if it is only for one season.