2024 PC Top 5 LF in the MLB

Daulton Varsho of the Toronto Blue Jays *(Getty Images)*

As we move to the outfield for our annual list, I think it’s worth noting that we will not have superstar DH Yordan Alvarez on our left field list, unlike MLB Network. The reason for this is simple, Yordan’s career high participation on defense was 56 games in 2022. He’s primarily a DH, and therefore will be considered for that list. I also want to get ahead of not having Kyle Schwarber in the top 5. The reason for this is Schwarner’s metric and reputation as one of the league’s worst defenders saps the value of his 45+ home runs he provides a year. Furthermore, he typically struggles to stay above the Medoza line and is one of the more severe three-outcome hitters in the league. Of course, left field is the land of displaced prospects from 2B and 3B, as well as center fielders who couldn’t play center field at the major league level. In some cases, it may even be a home for a former catcher or left fielder, if they have the offensive profile to stick around. Because left field is one of the easiest defensive positions in baseball, the offense needed to provide value is a high standard.

5) Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays*

According to Baseball Reference, Daulton Varsho was easily the top defensive outfielder in the MLB by the dWAR metric, with a 2.9 defensive win value. Tatis Jr. had a 2.3 dWAR, and won a platinum glove, while rookie Brenton Doyle was close behind with a 2.2 dWAR. Kwan had a great year defensively, but there is a strong argument that Varsho got robbed of the award with an absurd 29 DRS last year. Daulton’s team Kevin Kiermaier won his 4th GG in CF, and Varsho definitely got debited for playing significant time in both center and left field. His value from being able to play all three outfield positions cannot be overstated: 18 of his 29 DRS in 2023 came from his time in center field. Similar to Tatis Jr., Varsho was converted into an outfielder, but was originally a catcher. Daulton has 28.1 ft/sec which is 70th percentile, and certainly not bad for a former catcher. He commented at the end of the season that he felt he sold out for more power at the dish, and he had his worst year offensively, with an 85 wRC+. Though Varsho is a .229 career hitter, he has 25 homer power, and can steal 15-20 bags a year. When you put that together with elite defense and versatility, Varsho plays at an All Star level (4.0 fWAR+), when he’s at his best. Fangraphs DC projects him for 2.8 fWAR, while ZIPS projects 2.2 fWAR. The main reason for this is projection systems usually don’t expect outlier defensive value, which is where much of Daulton’s value stems from. If he can stay healthy and play 150 games, I’d expect another 3.0- 4.0 season from him.

2023 MLB Defensive bWAR leaders *(bRef)*

4) Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays

Randy is a classic example of an outfield prospect with a big bat and questionable glove. He played center and right early on in the minors, before being pushed to left field. His defensive liabilities didn’t prevent him from winning the AL ROY award in 2021. Since his rookie year, Randy is third among left fielders with a 126 wRC+, trailing Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber. Though he is a bad defender, he’s probably not quite as bad as Juan Soto and definitely not as putrid as Schwarber. There is an argument for a glove first guy like Daulton Varsho in the #4 spot here, but Arozarena’s playoff success has to be factored in when comparing to his peers. He has an ALCS MVP from 2020, and carries a .336 average with a 1.104 OPS. Randy’s increased intensity in October meets the eye test as well, you can tell he’s locked in and the 11 HR in 33 games show it. If I were to trade for Randy as say Seattle or San Diego, I would be thinking about buying the bat for October more than I would be concerned about his regular season performance in April and May. Evenstill, he’s hit since he entered the league and has three years of team control left. This has made him one of the most desired bats in the trade market, similar to the way teams are interested in getting Jesus Luzardo, a pitcher with 3 years of team control.

Randy Arozarena Postseason Stats *(bRef)*

3) Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

As you can see, Kwan has 1st percentile performance in barrel % and hard hit %, putting him in the bottom of the league. However, he does everything else well, including a whiff rate in the 100th percentile, and a K % of 10.4, placing in the 98th percentile. Kwan is arguably the best defender in the league in left, and carries 28.1 ft/sec footspeed. The 2X GG winner posted a 9 OAA in 2023, after placing as a finalist in the 2022 ROY voting largely due to his glove and on base abilities. Though Steven has little to no over the wall power, he’s posted a near 1:1 BB:K ratio, with a .282 career batting average. It can be easy to overestimate the value of homer value from a one dimensional player like Kyle Schwarber or Adam Dunn, but many times you find players like Steven Kwan on championship teams. They play their position well, run well, and have good at bats. He’s only 26 and has youth on his side. Steamer projects him for a 2.9 fWAR, the exact same value he posted in 2023.

2023 Steven Kwan Performance *(Baseball Savant)*

2) Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs extended Ian Happ to a 3-year, $61M deal back in April 2023 that starts this season. From 2022-2023, Happ has a 119 wRC, with a strong .351 OBP. He also has the best UZR (ultimate zone rating) during this time period as well, with a 19.7 rating. Ian also has a stronger arm than Kwan, which bolsters his case as the best defensive left fielder in the league right now. Kwan has DRS on his side, as well as the defensive value provided by Fangraphs. Either way, it’s difficult to dispute that Happ is the best defensive left fielder in the National League. Happ has significantly more over the wall power than a player like Kwan, good for around 20 homers a year. He’s not going to get on base at the same rate as Steven, but his power adds another element to his game that makes him a top three left fielder going into 2023.

2022-2023 Defensive Rankings in LF *(Fangraphs)*

1) Juan Soto, New York Yankees

Juan Soto is only 25, but has been a star since his 2019 Postseason performance. In fact, since the shortened COVID season, Juan Soto has been the best hitter in the National League, with a 159 wRC+. He now finds himself playing for the Yankees in a contract year, and should have a massive season. He’s not a base stealing threat, and he’s terrible in the outfield. Still, when you’re the one of the best hitters in the league and only 25 years old, you are looking at a historic payday. Soto has a ridiculous .431 OBP, which is historically good. He has the rare combination of hitting balls very hard and simultaneously posting very low strikeout numbers. Soto has 100th percentile BB%, 99th percentile chase %, and also finished 99th in hard hit % in 2023. This is what makes Soto elite, and a major addition to a Yankees lineup that badly needed protection for Judge. ZIPS projects him for a 5.9 fWAR, which is easily tops in the league at the position.