Should Ohtani Become the First DH to Win the MVP?
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Ashley Landis/AP)
Before the reader jumps to Shohei’s first two MVP’s as a reference point, I don’t consider them “DH only” MVP’s because Shohei was also a starting pitcher. He won those two MVPs because he was pitching and hitting. This year is different because he’s recovering from TJ surgery, and therefore, not pitching at all this season. Shohei is leading the league in runs, homers, batting average, slugging, OPS, OPS+, Total Bases, and probably a lot more categories. We all know the writers will likely vote for the player with the highest bWAR, unless it’s a razor thin margin. There are three players with a bWAR in the NL over 5.0, including Ohtani. The other two are both division rivals, Matt Chapman of the San Francisco Giants (5.3 bWAR) and Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks (5.9 bWAR).
Current 2024 NL MVP Odds (Draftkings)
As you can see above, Shohei is the prohibitive favorite for his third MVP in four years. He’s -1000 or 10:1, which are boxing odds more so than baseball odds. It would seem to me that either Ketel would have to force writers to vote for him with a historic stretch, or Ohtani would have to get hurt to lose. Now, we’ve covered the fact that it’s highly likely that he wins, but I want to explain why I believe he should win. Ohtani had quite a tumultuous spring, when his translator, secretary, handler, and best friend Ippei stole over $16M from him. Shohei himself was accused by many of gambling those sums of money himself, with a potential conspiracy. That now seems unlikely, unless you think the DHS and FBI colluded with the MLB to create a masterful coverup in a handful of days. This was also after a busy offseason, where he signed a record $700M deal ($460M NPV) with the LA Dodgers. He also got married in February, a month before the scandal broke. Needless to say, Shohei performed exceptionally well in April regardless, hitting 336/.399/.618.
Shohei Ohtani Overview (bRef)
Of course, there is a reason that a DH has never won MVP– the offensive gap that needs to be cleared to make up for not playing any defense. Of course, in past seasons, Ohtani has more than compensated for this by starting games himself on the mound. This year, we thought he might play the outfield as Dave Roberts indicated. That hasn’t happened, but it shouldn’t matter. Ohtani is dominating the league offensively this season, and there isn’t a comparable player in the NL right now with 30 HR, 30 SB while hitting over .300. He’s probably hit 40-40, which would make him a lock for MVP even if he ends up below .300. Before Acuña last year, 40-40 hadn’t been accomplished since Soriano did it for the Nationals back in 2006.
40-40 Club All Time (bRef)
My third and final argument is that he’s made a larger impact on his club than either Chapman or Marte. Obviously Freddie Freeman was out for awhile on family emergency leave (thankfully his son is ok), while Mookie has been out for months with a broken hand. They’ve had a litany of pitching injuries, yet they still sit on the throne in the NL West. They would be nowhere close to 1st right now without Ohtani, and every Dodgers fan knows it. There is no question Marte has a complete top 3 MVP season, hitting .300 with 28 bombs and playing great defense at second. Chapman’s played well at third, and he’s been a strong consistent presence at the plate this year for the Giants. Evenstill, Chappy is hitting .243 with 18 Homers. I mean, what are we doing here debating this? Sure you could stick Shohei in left field, he’d probably be in consideration for a Gold Glove. Either way, he’s my NL MVP for 2024 unless something dramatically shifts in the next seven weeks.
*Stats are as of 8/7/24