Career Revival Alert: Víctor Robles
Víctor Robles (right) of the Seattle Mariners (Dean Rutz/Seattle Times)
Julio Rodríguez suffered his ankle injury July 21st, when he crashed into the center field wall at T-Mobile chasing a Yordan Alvarez hit. Víctor Robles has played everyday in his stead, hitting .375/.436/.554 in the month of July for the Mariners. When the M’s picked up Víctor on June 5th off of waivers, I don’t think anyone was expecting him to play this well, perhaps even Robles. He’s been a big part of the Mariners keeping up with Houston in the Al West, despite most of their veteran hitters playing well below their career and talent level. Robles is filling in for Julio well in center, and he’s hitting .310 with 10 stolen bases for 100 plate appearances for Seattle. Pre-2018, he was ranked #5 prospect in the game by Baseball America, yet he was a bust when he turned 27 years old this past May. Now that we’ve seen him perform this summer, we may have to consider whether Víctor Robles is actually a bust?
2024 Víctor Robles Overview (bRef)
“He's always had the tools to develop into a premier defensive center fielder, with well above-average speed and a plus arm, and he's now taking the steps to become more efficient. With current plus tools in every category except power--where he has a chance to become above-average--Robles has the chance to become a perennial all-star. While he may require a bit more minor league seasoning in 2018, he could quickly become an outfield fixture in Washington.”
Baseball America 2018 Scouting Report
With a career .302 minor league batting average and .861 OPS, Robles has shown us he can hit at all levels of the minor leagues. However, it didn’t translate in D.C., where he hit .236 with only 31 homers in 530 games. The highlight of his eight year tenure was the 2019 World Series, which was coincidentally the only good year Víctor had for the Nationals. He finished 6th in the NL ROY voting, while posting a ridiculous 25 DRS in center field, with a 4.4 bWAR. From 2020-2022, Robles rode the struggle bus and only hit .216 over a three year span. D.C. ultimately cut bait and DFA’d him this past June.
Víctor Robles 2020-2022 Hitting (bRef)
Though the bat hasn’t been there consistently in his MLB career, Robles has always flashed a plus arm, and usually grades well defensively. He’s 11/11 in stolen bases in only 40 games for Seattle, he’s proved he’s a plus runner over his professional career, and he’s got a 76.4% career SB success rate. Since he can play centerfield, he’ll have a job in the MLB long term with an OPS even near the .700 range (league average CF is .694 OPS). Though he’s only 27, he’s accrued over 5 years of service, and will be a free agent in November of 2024. The Mariners don’t have a long term fit for him with Julio in center and plenty of corner outfielders in the organization. It’s more than likely he’ll be playing for someone else in 2025, the question is really whether he can sell a team on the narrative of him as an everyday player.
2024 League Average As Center Fielder (Fangraphs)
Though Víctor has a predictably superior .720 OPS vs left handed pitching in his career, the splits are flipped this year. He’s hitting .307/.384/.480 for a .864 OPS vs RHP, which are All Star numbers by all accounts. He has a terrible .576 OPS against LHP this year, however both of these figures include his at bats with D.C. in early 2024. He’s at a minimum shown that he can hit righties effectively, and he has the track record of .700+ OPS against lefties. Per Baseball America, the question was whether the power would develop, and he’s demonstrated his fair share of power for the Mariners. He’s likely not going to hit 20 bombs over a full season, but he can get into the double digits with plenty of doubles and triples to boot. Víctor’s career revival is an inspiring story that we can all glean something from, and he’s shown enough to attract some eight figure offers in guaranteed money when winter comes around. Just two months ago, it looked like a dwindling career, and hopefully his story can drive some other struggling ball players to aspire and play on through.
2024 Robles Platoon Splits (bRef)