Wild NL West Race
Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks (ESPN)
Despite the Dodgers carrying a 15-8 record entering today, they’ve lost ground in the NL West since the All Star Break. The DBacks and the Padres each are only three games behind, and the Dodgers are losing 4-3 on Wednesday night as I’m writing this. LA has dominated the West for decades, with intermittent success from the Giants. One of these two teams have won the NL West for 12 years consecutively, since the Snakes took the West in 2011 under Kirk Gibson’s leadership. Even when we saw Arizona miraculously get to the World Series last year, it was through the Wild Card. They were one of the less impressive teams in the bracket, but they got hot at the right time. In 2024, they’re hot again, and so are the San Diego Padres. This is shaping up to be a close race in the NL West despite the Dodgers paying about $90M in luxury tax penalties for their star-studded roster.
2024 MLB Clubs Tax Bills (Spotrac)
The Padres’ starting rotation is 9-3 with an MLB-leading 2.93 ERA since the break, besting even the Seattle Mariners’ staff. Perhaps just as important, their bullpen is 9-1 with a 3.06 ERA that places 6th in the MLB for the 2nd half. San Diego has a strong rotation led by newly acquired arms Dylan Cease and Michael King. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron has been effective, and Joe Musgrove is back now too. Their bullpen improved significantly at the deadline, with acquisitions like Tanner Scott and Jason Adam improving a group that already included Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Yuki Matsui. Come October, this pitching staff will be difficult to top in October.
2024 San Diego Padres Pitching Staff Performance (bRef)
As you can see below, the Padres have continued to hit into the 2nd half, with a top 5 offense that displays a balance of contact and power. That said, no offense has been hotter than Arizona’s. Their 142 wRC+ is best in the show, while also leading with a .290 team batting average. The Snakes showed everyone last year what they can do when they get hot, and you could certainly make the argument that this 2024 club is better than last year. The top 3 offenses in the National League this year are the Dodgers, Dbacks, and Padres in that order. Ketel Marte is competing with Shohei and Elly for MVP, hitting .298 with 30 home runs already. We are seeing peak Joc Pederson, and Jake McCarthy has broken out. Imagine if Corbin Carroll was having a good year?
2024 MLB Team Hitting Performance in 2nd Half (Fangraphs)
Arizona may not have the pitching that San Diego or LA has, but Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt have both pitched well this year. A key for Arizona will be Jordan Montgomery, who pitched well against them in the World Series last year. This year, he’s struggled tremendously with a 6.37 ERA in 17 starts. Although Paul Sewald has struggled in the closer role this year, the Snakes have gotten dominant campaigns from Justin Martínez and sidearmer Ryan Thompson. Their 4.17 team bullpen ERA doesn’t look good in a vacuum, but they have a few lower leverage arms skewing those results. The guys who will be pitching in October have thrown pretty well this year for the most part. Either the Padres or Arizona would be a threat in the playoffs, particularly with the 1st round bye if they catch the Dodgers. This is no easy task of course, especially with Mookie’s broken hand now healed.
*Stats are as of 8/14/2024