'Stro Wars: The Revenge of James Click
AI Image Generator, Emperor Palpatine, Toronto Blue Jays
If the Houston Astros’ dynasty is over, it will have died on July 29th, 2024. Rome didn’t fall when it was sacked. That was just the last word. After a legendary comeback season push that has rivaled the run of the 1914 Miracle Braves’, the Astros lost to the Pirates at home in a 5-2 bullpen meltdown to night-cap an evening where they wrapped up their big deadline acquisition: Yusei Kikuchi. This is all a lot of hyperbole to talk smack with, especially when it’s directed at a golden age wolfpack that’s ensured the ALCS runs through Houston for 7 straight years.
To understand the first sentence, let’s take a trip back to November of 2022. The Astros have just paraded through downtown Houston yet again, reigning World Series champions. Orange and blue ticker tape helicopters onto the cement sidewalk — a visual metaphor for the neurochemical bliss of postseason heroics subsiding as a new season – a new storm to defend that title against – was brewing over on the Hot Stove.
General Manager of the Houston Astros, James Click, after the Astros win the 2022 World Series (FoxNews.com)
Missing James Click
For Astros fans, there was even more buzz to look forward to: the entire, opening day roster was returning, all except for 2022 Cy Young award winner, Justin Verlander, and maybe Yuli Gurriel. “No problem”, they thought, “we have JV the sequel, and he’s even from Detroit!” – of course referring to 5th round draft pick out of Wayne State, Hunter Brown, who modeled his delivery off of his childhood icon, Verlander, himself. Cristian Javier had baffled the Phillies in a combined World Series no-hitter, Yordan was haunting Robbie Ray and Jose Alvarado’s offseason slumber, and Framber Valdez was the lockdown ace; the surety of the first back-to-back World Series title since the 2000 Yankees felt inevitable, and, like the elusive, spiritual X-factor of Javier’s Invisiball itself, this confidence was innate, the legend enshrined of just being the Houston Astros: Jeff Luhnow’s mad science experiment success.
But, during the Hot Stove, in the wake of the World Series win, Jim Crane de facto-fired General Manager James Click, offering him the inverted Godfather deal of a 1 year extension as his World Series bonus. Crane didn’t like Click because he wasn’t flashy enough in his acquisitions. Yet, it was Click that got Christian Vázquez, shutdown-the-7th Rafael Montero, stoic and nonplussed Phil Maton, hype-man-Houdini Héctor Neris, and hitting-catcher phenom Yainer Díaz – all for dirt cheap – not to mention acquisitions like Yimi García and Kendall Graveman in the 2021 push. By 2022, Click had pieced together the most impressive lockdown bullpen in baseball history. The 2022 Astros bullpen led the MLB with a 2.80 ERA, and across the entire Postseason, they became the first bullpen to throw 40 innings and pitch an ERA less than 1.00 (.83).
Here’s James Click on his relationship with Jim Crane:
"We're different. Jim is — well, look, let me clarify, there's some things that we do very differently…I think he likes to act very quickly. In certain cases, I tend toward a more deliberate approach.”
These names, aside from Graveman, didn’t pop off the HTML when the MLB app notification came through during those trade deadlines, but they were the types of deals that grew strong in posterity. A good GM uses analytics to turn one team’s farm feed into a world champion’s ribeye. This had been the Astros’ way: steadily acquiring low key talent from the international draft (Javier, Framber, Urquidy, Garcia) and remarkable basement bargains that no one saw coming (getting Yordan Álvarez from the Los Angeles Dodgers for Josh Fields), while only spending on a single big splash when it really meant something (Verlander in 2017, Grienke in 2019). For everything in between, the Astros relied upon their system to turn unknown, unranked farm talent into real replacements for big name free agents looking for payday, like Jeremy Peña did for Carlos Correa. Peña went on to win the ALCS, the Gold Glove, and the World Series MVP award – as a rookie.
2023: Dana’s First (Sort of) Stint
In the winter of 2023, the Astros’ top brass found themselves drunk on the dopamine of another World Series, and without a GM to steer the ship. Doing his best Jerry Jones impersonation, owner Jim Crane let his good friend Jeff Bagwell acquire post-prime and power-declined, 37-year old José Abreu from the White Sox for 3 years, $58.5 million on behalf of the organization. Then, together, they signed Montero for 3 years, $34.5 million, putting him in the top tier of higher-paid relievers in baseball, only $3 million AAV away from Ryan Pressly. Bagwell was quoted as saying, “[p]ersonally, for me, I just think there are certain things that go on that the numbers can’t explain because this game is played by humans, man. It’s not played by computers”.
Contrarily, with 2023 Spring Training underway, Crane hired Atlanta Braves’ vice president of scouting, Dana Brown, to be the new General Manager. Astros fans erupted with joy. This move signaled a renewed run – an ongoing and endless dynasty. With a scouting master to restock the Manfred-punished farm system, and an ex-MVP bat to replace Yuli Gurriel’s declining offense at first base, the 2022 band wasn’t just back together again – it was way better and would stay better.
It was a dismal 2023 for José Abreu, and Martín Maldinado’s .192 AVG and .606 OPS while starting 72 percent of games behind the dish wasn’t helping. The Astros gave up another batch of prospects at the trade deadline to re-acquire Kendall Graveman for their bullpen and reunite Crane with his golf buddy, JV. It felt like Dana Brown wasn’t really in control. Rookie Yainer Diaz hit 23 home runs with an .846 OPS, but wasn’t the starting catcher, despite Brown’s protestations. After sharing his excitement about Drew Gilbert all spring, both first-round picks, Gilbert (#3 prospect, 2023) and Ryan Clifford (#6, prospect, 2023) got shipped off to Steve Cohen and the Mets for a year and a half of an aging JV who was a far-cry from his 2022 form, and who had started the year injured and was less quick-to-recover in his older age. Prospect Korey Lee (#7 prospect, 2023) was flipped for Graveman, who ended up with a 1.52 WHIP, 5.00 FIP performance in the back-half of the 2023 season and didn’t even make it to the 2023 playoffs.
2024 Season: Shaking off the Dust
Enter 2024: It’s Dana Brown’s first full year as a General Manager. Dusty Baker retired, and Brown’s GM pick, Joe Espada, got the job, ensuring his strategy would be employed in the avatar of the dugout’s tactics. Brown let Stanek, Neris, and Maton all walk, and his big acquisition for the best bullpen in baseball was to replace 3 arms costing only a total of $19.5 million (based on their current AAV contracts) for a 5 year, $19 million per year contract for Josh Hader. Brown still had Abreu on the books (from before his time), but there was life shown in José’s bat in the 2023 playoff run that gave credence to Bagwell’s “back of the baseball card” assuaging. Soon, the Astros had totaled a casualty count of 6 starting pitchers on the IL. Not Dana’s fault. By April 30th, the Astros were in dead last place, playing 10-19 ball for a .345 winning percentage.
On April 30th, the Astros realized it was time for a change. They called up their big prospect, Joey Loperfido. For the duration of his first call-up (April 30th - May 27th), he raked with a .353 AVG with an .876 OPS over 38 plate appearances, including a Juice Box-shaking 2 RBI line drive in his first MLB at-bat. The Astros went 14-11 during that stretch. It felt like things were clicking again. The bullpen stopped blowing leads. Loperfido and Jake Meyers’ Gold Glove-level defense with several 4-star catches pumped up the team in critical moments. One could feel the earth rumbling in Houston, again. This shift in team morale coincided with Abreu’s demotion to the minor leagues, too. It felt like an anchor (.361 OPS, .124 AVG) had been cut loose from the foundering ship of the 2024 season.
Suddenly, despite providing a critical spark, Loperfido stopped getting playing time without an explanation. Abreu was called up, and Loperfido sent down again. Abreu continued his dismal performance until finally being cut on June 14th, with the remaining $40 million of his contract swallowed. Again, not totally Dana’s fault. But what’s interesting is Loperfido being benched for success, sent down for a fool’s errand of an unmerited Abreu comeback tour, and the correlated increase in Houston’s team performance with each Loperfido call-up and Abreu demotion. While Loperfido was demoted again, in lieu of Abreus’ third chance, the Astros barely treaded water, playing .500 ball.
The Joey Jolt?
Finally, the Astros released Abreu and called back Loperfido on June 21st. They’ve since gone 19-10 as of July 29th. Correlation is not causation. But when you turned on Space City Network, you could hear the excitement in the stadium, you could hear the hope in the tone of the broadcast booth, and you could see the team playing with more intensity and less mind-numbing mistakes. The eye test of the dugout looked like playoff energy, not sullen statues waiting for a series against the Rockies. Loperfido’s legendary acrobatic catch in Minnesota was just a sample of his other run-saving leaps, pumping up the dugout with a youthful hope that the Astros were determined to win. His offense declined slightly, as Chas McCormick came back from the IL, and his playing time decreased. Being sent down thrice in the span of 3 months and benched after incredible success may have played a part in exacerbating an inevitable rookie slump, not giving him the requisite MLB at-bats to figure out the elite pitching shapes one doesn’t witness in Triple-A.
Still, the Astros were piecing things together. Jon Singleton was playing serviceable defense at first base. The touted bullpen of Abreu, Pressly and Hader was shutting down games. The Astros weren’t losing heartbreakers to the Angels anymore. The trade deadline had almost approached, and then Bregman hit a 2019-esque, train-track walk-off to get the series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, in one of the most electrifying, playoff-atmosphere games of the 2024 season. Despite the 6 starters on the IL, new arms were stepping in to reload the chamber. This was typical Astros: yesteryear's no-names like Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco stepping up as the next ace that nobody saw coming. Coming back from 12 games out of first place at their rock bottom to now a 55-50 record as of July 29th, the Astros were 5 games over .500 and holding first place in the AL West.
The 2024 Trade Deadline
General Manager Dana Brown stated that the deadline target was starting pitching. The Astros were down to a 5 man rotation backed by 2 rookies that had barely spent time in the minor leagues. Luis Garcia (Tommy John) and Justin Verlander (neck stiffness) were throwing bullpens and almost back. In Brown’s opinion, the Astros needed one more middle-of-the-rotation arm to keep things together in case of one more injury – another body; just a little padding; nothing flashy was needed. I think a lot of fans agreed. Then, Garcia and JV’s near return — though not a guarantee of performance — would at least bury Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown’s career high innings exhaustion in the depth of a 6-7 man rotation. Arrighetti and Bloss could step back and workshop some pitches, or help out the taxed middle relievers like Seth Martinez and Tayler Scott who are bound for career highs in innings pitched, as well.
Dana Brown, Houston Astros General Manager (Yardbarker)
Last night, July 29th, this trade and the game during which it happened became a harbinger of an eerie change in Houston. The Astros scratched a meager 2 runs on an error against the Pirates, but clung on to their 2-1 lead heading into the 8th. Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader came in for the last two frames. The game started to feel heavy, slow, and inevitably bad. It reminded one of the start of the Stros’ season. Pressly gave up the lead and Hader walked the first two batters of the 9th, surrendering a monster 3-run home run to Michael A. Taylor. Despite loading the bases in the bottom of the ninth, the Astros looked like the wind was out of their sails. Pirates’ closer, David Bednar, walked in Yordan for the only run of the 9th. Every run the Astros scored was given to them by Pittsburgh.
Yusei Kikuchi, Months – Game-Level (Baseball Reference)
One more heartbreak game shouldn’t really disrupt the energy, especially amidst the current incredible run where Houston has zoomed their way into first place. But, halfway through the game, the news came that clarified why rookie Jake Bloss was scratched from the day’s start. At first, the headline had read that Jake Bloss was being traded for Kikuchi in a 1-for-1 deal. Sure, it stung like getting an iPod shuffle for Christmas when you asked for a MacBook, but a more cool-headed appraisal made it look brilliant. Kikuchi ate innings and threw strikes, so, even if he was just a 2 month rental, you were willing to lose on the high return risk of Bloss panning out. But as phones buzzed with the notification of the final trade details, an ominous feeling spread throughout the Juice Box. The crushing realization was echoed in the thunderous, 3-run shot given up by Hader’s $100 million arm.
Dana Brown had dealt Bloss, along with Joey Loperfido and Billy Wagner’s kid, Will Wagner, to the Toronto Blue Jays for Kikuchi. It felt not only like the dopamine crash of major letdown during the Christmastime-feel of the trade deadline, a time where October-bound championship runs get outfitted with new gear – hearkening to the montage scenes of heist movies, where the team is assembled with shiny, cutting-edge gadgetry to steal the final, big score. Instead, it felt like the future for Houston was being nibbled away, again — for a move that wasn’t even additive. In a sudden, horrifying, realization, one saw that Dana Brown, in his first real move at the trade deadline, might be in way over his head. It didn’t make sense to acquire a rental at such cost when your problem was mainly the number of arms, not just their quality.
Dana’s logic was to add a pitcher. The Astros swapped Jake Bloss for Yusei Kikuchi, netting them the same number of arms in their rotation. The only other addition for Dana’s 2024 trade deadline was left-handed reliever, Caleb Ferguson, from the Yankees. Ferguson and Kikuchi make each other look better as an acquisition, depending upon the length of the butter knife you’re cutting with. Ferguson’s 5 ERA at least makes Kikuchi’s 4.75 ERA seem refined. But when you look at Kikuchi’s 6.2 ERA for June and 6.5 ERA over July, Caleb Ferguson starts to seem like the bigger pickup. I’m being coy, and Kikuchi’s Stuff+ on his fastball ranks him 7th in the MLB for that pitch shape. But, as a self-described slow-starter who takes time to warm up to the social environment of his new clubhouse (check his first year in Seattle and Toronto), is the 2 month rental of a struggling pitcher enough time to help him acclimate?
In his press conference, Brown defended his move:
“There were names of pretty good arms coming off the board, and so ultimately you don’t want to get caught not doing anything to help the major league team get back to the postseason, and so I feel like the later it gets sometimes the higher the prices can get.”
Dana Brown sounds like he panicked and overpaid. One could argue that Bloss’s MLB debut, though premature, wasn’t faring any worse than Kikuchi’s last 2 months. If it had been a gain of Kikuchi for a 6-man rotation, the trade makes a little sense. Yes, Loperfido struck out 33% of the time, but his defense and signs of consistent contact and getting on base in his first full month show signs of a promising hitter that can adjust to MLB pitching. Jake Bloss, a rising star from their system that quickly moved to Double-A in his first year, sported a .71 WHIP and 1.61 ERA with 6 years of team control. Wagner had a promising .393 wOBA and only an 18% chase rate in his 324 Triple-A plate appearances, and was a good candidate to at least stop the bleeding from Bregman’s hot corner spot walking in free agency. Brown had not only fallen short of the fans’ October hype – he had gotten completely fleeced by the Toronto Blue Jays. Ultimately, Brown caved to the pressure of having promised to make a deal, rather than walking away from an inflated and unthinkable price tag.
Yusei Kikuchi, 2024 MLB Percentile Rankings (Baseball Savant)
Kikuchi is a 2 month rental with a 4.75 ERA. His Baseball Savant page shows a chilly-blue proclivity for giving up hard hit bombs into the short porch of the Crawford Boxes, despite his Stuff+. He’s a hard-throwing, back-of-the-rotation piece in the midst of a tough slump. Echoing Dana Brown’s press conference comparison of Kikuchi to Framber, with both “having power”, a recent Reddit thread argued for a more lucid take, that Kikuchi is basically Framber, if you compare their impact statistics for 2024:
Kikuchi: 10.12 k/9, 3.41xFIP, 2.33 BB/9
Framber: 7.99 k/9, 3.35 xFIP, 3.10 BB/9
Yet, this ignores the career profile where Kikuchi sports a 4.08 xFIP, a 4.72 ERA, and averages 135 innings of workload over his last 4, full MLB seasons. Framber Valdez, on the other hand, has a career 3.40 xFIP, a 3.40 ERA, and 161 innings over his last 4, full MLB seasons. Framber has also won World Series games. Kikuchi hasn’t appeared in a Postseason game in his career. Brown gave away the farm for inexperienced and temporary help, alleging that Kikuchi could help Houston in the playoffs.
Bring Back the Nerds
Dana Brown was dealt an incredibly difficult hand with José Urquidy, Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Justin Verlander, and JP France all on the IL. Further, he was saddled with the Abreu and Montero contracts before his tenure. Even if the league didn’t see Abreu’s offensive output falling off of a cliff, the deal was still an overpay. Dana’s two major moves in his first full year as GM, however, were overpaying for Josh Hader at $100 million and trading 3 of Houston’s top prospects for a 2 month rental of a middling pitcher undergoing major struggles. Worse, the opportunity cost of these moves is more glaring. The division rival Rangers packed their staff with signing Michael Lorenzen in the offseason, in addition to bullpen arms Kirby Yates and David Robertson, whose contracts, like those of Maton, Neris and Stanek – total up to less than Hader’s total price tag.
Houston’s farm system, ravaged by the loss of its first round draft picks as a consequence of the sign-stealing scandal, has now lost Korey Lee, Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss, Drew Gilbert, Ryan Clifford, and Will Wagner. If you looked at the prospect depth chart from last year’s perspective, this is like cutting off the head of your farm system. Dana’s done it in only 2 years. The returns seem meager in comparison: Graveman, after a disappointing end to 2023, is on the IL for 2024, JV has yet to start his 11th game this season, and now, Kikuchi.
It’s hard to say a mighty dynasty has fallen based on a 3-run bomb and a 3-player debacle at the deadline, but it’s bigger than that. The Astros, after 2022, were uniquely poised to continue their remarkable run. The entire team was coming back, save for JV and free agents Yuli Gurriel, Trey Mancini, and Christian Vázquez. Most folks that don’t follow the Astros assume that the dynasty must be aging out, just because players like JV, Altuve, and Bremgan are older. But that doesn’t tell the full story. Incredibly, the Astros have persistently passed on flashy free agent contracts like Correa’s and Springer’s, replacing the shield wall with the next man up: Jeremy Peña and Kyle Tucker, respectively. A three-pronged approach of high picks from the strategic season-tanking of the 2010’s, stellar international scouting by Oz Ocampo that acquired much of their 2022 starting rotation, and adroit, budget deals that got tomorrow’s bats like Yainer and Yordan – this is how Houston has stayed ahead of the usual boom and bust cycles of other dynasties. They weren’t aging out, they were walking into a golden age of baseball that hasn’t been seen yet — where it’s not players in their prime years that sustain the reign, but a franchise dedicated to analytics and sober deals, guiding the peaks into the valleys for a less jagged and more robust, long term growth.
But with Dana Brown’s poor deals, and the recklessness of Jim Crane’s deputization of Jeff Bagwell, the Astros made every wrong move. They’ve squandered their chance at sustained stardom by selling the future for lukewarm returns now, and overpaying on flashy free agents they didn’t need on the wrong side of 30. It’s ironic that Brown, hired to bolster the farm system, has traded much of it away for quick deals.
Sadly, the rock bottom that startles a franchise into the much-needed introspection of a rebuild is masked under an almost-great-but-not-enough team like the Astros have now. They’re too good to get better again, fast enough. Their lineup, especially with Kyle Tucker coming back (maybe?) and Bregman ending his characteristic, slow first half, is stacked and October-ready – almost. They didn’t need to spend big on an aging Abreu and Hader while letting so many, less-expensive innings-eaters walk or walk past them in free agency. As for their youth, Gilbert and Clifford’s MLB pipeline power have fled to New York. Joey Loperfido was intended to play first base, but never even got a start at the position, and was mismanaged and sent down after success. It reminded one of Dusty’s handling of 2023, with Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick sitting after they’d succeeded. It’s not that Hader is bad (he has a 2.61 ERA in save opportunities versus a 5.33 ERA in non-save opportunities), nor that Kikuchi isn’t enough (he could provide some zip with his fastball and low walks), it’s that the core of Houston’s ball club needs all the youth it can get, and needs to be smart about its purchases, for which they’ve grossly overspent in order to plug holes that weren’t leaking. Dana, my apologies if Crane is still running the show and you’re just the fall guy. Blink twice if you’re under duress.
For Houston to continue on in its incredible run, it will need to “bring back the nerds”. The opposite approach, of going solely with their feelings, has led the Astros front office into dire straits, setting in motion a terrible of cycle of siphoning off what young talent they do have for quick rentals, while burning cash on past-prime free agents they don’t need – cash that could be spent on securing the youthful core they still possess. Perhaps the funny part of it all is that the Kikuchi trade is less about the immediate lack of return for the exorbitant price of what went out. It’s that former GM, James Click, the calculated, baseball nerd that built the 2022 bullpen for cheap and kept the farm system in a net-gain, moved on after his de facto firing to become the president of baseball operations for the Toronto Blue Jays. No one knows Houston’s farm system better. Perhaps, Astros fans can take some solace knowing that this wasn’t just Dana’s blunder, nor merely Crane’s hubris, nor some esoteric inevitability that all great runs must come to an end; perhaps this bitter trade deadline headline was the revenge of James Click – and perhaps the first word of the perfect epitaph for the golden era of the Houston Astros. I hope to be proven wrong.
Sources:
MLB - Framber Valdez, Ryan Pressly Notch Milestones For Astros
Houston Chronicle - Vital to the Title, Astros Bullpen Shines Again
Fox News - Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell takes shot at ex-Astros GM James Click
Climbing Tal’s Hill - Dana Brown and Dusty Baker
YouTube - Joey Loperfido’s first MLB At-bat
YouTube - Diving Catch by Joey Loperfido
YouTube - Joey Loperfido’s Incredible Leaping Juggling Catch
Yardbarker - Houston Astros GM Speaks Out on Shocking Trade Price for Yusei Kikuchi
YouTube - Dana brown Reports Houston Astros Acquire Lefty Yusei Kikuchi from Blue Jays
Baseball Savant - Yusei Kikuchi
Reddit - The Trade is Not as Bad As We Think (thread)
*Stats are as of 7/30/2024
