What Should The O's Do At The Deadline?
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers (MLB.com)
The American League landscape is a tale of two titans in the East: the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees. The Cleveland Guardians are actually statistically on the same level with a 58-38 expected record, superior to the Orioles’ 57-40 expected record. Yet it doesn't necessarily feel that way to me– the Orioles intuitively seem like the best team in the American League with the best offense and Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes as their ace.
The Yankees have Juan Soto and the AL home run king Aaron Judge, but they’re top heavy and don’t have other hitters with an OPS north of .700 in their lineup right now. The Orioles have hit a lot of homers, just reaching 153 today. That’s 44 more bombs than Cleveland over 97 games, so the O’s are mashing 0.45 more homers a game than the Guardians as a team. The Baltimore offense is slightly ahead of the Yankees by wRC+, with the Twins and Astros trailing behind. It is obvious that they don’t need more bats, so where should all of the talented minor league hitters go?
2024 AL wRC+ Team Rankings (Fangraphs)
The Orioles have graduated some players from their system, including stars Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Young infielder Jordan Westburg made his first All Star team, playing both 2nd and 3rd with an OPS over .800. POBO Mike Elias started the process of moving excess bats this winter when he acquired Burnes, trading Joey Ortiz to Milwaukee. However, even with Joey gone, they have nowhere to put Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, or Jackson Holliday. All three are playing in Norfolk (AAA), and putting up impressive numbers. I suspect two of the three could be dealt by July 30th, in what would be a major blockbuster move.
The O’s have a need for starting pitching, behind Corbin and Grayson Rodriguez. The Mariners have the best pitching staff in the AL, but unfortunately for the O’s, Seattle will be a buyer on the 30th. Kyle Bradish was having a great year as a #3 starter before getting TJ surgery, putting up 2.75 ERA in eight starts. Albert Suarez has been solid, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to handle the workload of a full MLB season. Kremer and Irvin are fine for eating innings in July, but you can’t plan on innings from either guy in October. If the Orioles are on the hunt for a starter, what does the marketplace look like for the trade deadline?
2024 Orioles Starting Pitching Depth Chart (Fangraphs)
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers may say they’re not selling, but they are 5.5 games back in the West and 7.5 back in the WC race. Short of getting hurt, there are few reasons Nate would not reach the 156 innings he needs to vest for 2025. Mike Elias prefers paying a little more for team control years over a rental player, and I’m sure he’s noticed Eovaldi’s considerable AL East experience. Along with Jordan Montgomery, Nate put the Texas Rangers on his back on the way to a World Series last postseason. He’s 4-0 with a 1.03 in postseason clinching games, and tied an MLB record by winning five games in a singular October. That kind of résumé for meaningful games, along with his two World Series trophies, should have him on Baltimore’s short list.
2024 Nathan Eovaldi Overview (bRef)
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Crochet is a converted reliever, and a dominant one at that. He’s leading the league in K, K/9, and FIP in his first year as a starter. The University of Tennessee product also ranks 94th percentile in his extension as a 6’6” lefty. His 97 MPH four-seamer has done serious damage to hitters, but he’s also had considerable success with his cutter and sweeper as well. Garrett is under control for 2025 and 2026, so he’ll cost more than Eovaldi due to his higher upside, youth, and team control. He’s only 25 and starting games for the first time, so there’s a decent chance he’s even better next year. He’s also left handed, which is a nice compliment to Burnes and Rodriguez, who are both righties. The Orioles are one of the few teams who could easily put together a package that Chris Getz would consider to send his best pitcher packing.
2024 Garrett Crochet Metrics (Baseball Savant)
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
This former Seattle U star is a left handed All Star with two plus years of team control, just like his division rival Crochet. Skubal has more hype in the trade market right now, largely due to the fact that he’s favored to win the Cy Young at the time of writing. Skubal has had some injuries; he’s only thrown 120 innings once in the MLB and has yet to throw 150 in a season. This is a question that can similarly be asked of Crochet, as well as many young talented arms: How will Tarik do in October when he’s already thrown 180 innings? The Orioles are a great fit for him, just as they are for Crochet. Either player is a great acquisition, and I’m sure Elias will be on both. Obviously, the Orioles won’t be the only team calling about either guy, so some of this will depend on how the market responds. Giving up a prospect like Jackson Holliday is a heavy price to pay, but the organization has to make a big splash in the Birdbath to cement themselves as an American League juggernaut for years to come.
2024 Tarik Skubal Overview (bRef)