The Comeback Story In Detroit
2024 Detroit Tigers Team (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
The Tigers made national news by making an improbable run down the stretch to make the playoffs, and then again by knocking off the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series. As we can see in the below playoff probability chart, the Tigers were at about zero chance for much of August. The Twins were favored to grab a Wild Card, while the Mariners were on the fringes with Detroit and Boston. Shockingly, the Tigers were the best team in baseball in September, with their pitching staff going 17-8 with a 2.79 ERA. After Tarik Skubal, the pitching staff was looking thin with relievers like Beau Briske opening games. Their offense ranked in the bottom third of the league for most of the year, hitting .234 with only 162 homers in 2024. Neither the starting pitching depth nor mediocre hitting held the Tigers back though, and now they’re in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. These are the postseason berths that drew me into baseball. How can you not fall in love with October baseball?
AL Central Playoff Odds (Fangraphs)
The AL Central has been known by many fans as the weakest division in the MLB in recent years, but that seems to be an outdated view of the current landscape in Major League ball. The Royals are emerging behind Cole Ragans and Bobby Witt Jr., while the Twins won the division as recently as last year. The Cleveland Guardians have 6X All Star José Ramírez, and their 2.57 ERA was easily the best bullpen ERA in the American League. With these teams competing for the division crown, the only AL Central team the Tigers looked to be better than was the worst team ever, the 2024 Chicago White Sox.
2024 AL Central Standings (Fangraphs)
Skubal is going to win the AL Cy Young, while also earning the triple crown by leading the league in wins, ERA, and K’s. There's no question; the Tigers wouldn’t be making the playoffs if Skubal was 10% or 15% less great than he was, but we live on the margins. The league is pretty competitive, and the Wild Card round came down the last weeknd of the regular season, but the Twins officially got bounced. Part of the equation with the lack of starting pitching depth is the Tigers’ sell at the deadline– they traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers. They gave Kenta Maeda a two year deal, and he was atrocious. Reese Olson was on the IL for a sizable chunk of the year with a shoulder strain. Thankfully AJ Hinch was able to get some innings from Casey Mize and rookie Keider Montero who was seemingly just eating innings in a lost season. Turns out, every start mattered and that should be a lesson to some of these clubs that trade their closer or #2 starter at the deadline while only a few games out. Couldn’t the Tigers use Jack Flaherty right now just like the Mariners could have used Paul Sewald at the end of last season?
Thankfully for Hinch and the Tigers front office, the steller bullpen has been able to eat a ton of innings, and that’s how they beat the Astros in the Wild Card Series. After a brilliant start by Skubal in Game 1, Hinch decided to open with lefty Tyler Holton in Game 2. The pen was able to throw all nine innings on the road against a tough Houston lineup and held them to only two runs. They also held the Astros to zero extra hits, and pitched to contact, with only five strikeouts. The two runs allowed were allowed by 22-year-old rookie and top prospect, Jackson Jobe, who has gone from high A ball to coming out of the pen in October over the course of only a few months. This bullpen has been a collection of guys developed by Detroit, whether acquired through the draft like Jobe or otherwise. Holton came to Detroit as a failed 27-year-old starter, only to carry a 2.15 ERA in 125 games for the Tigers over the last two seasons. Will Vest was the Tigers’ 12th round pick back in 2017, and he’s established himself as one of the more consistent right handers in the league. Brenan Hanifee was another starter sputtering out when the Orioles cut him. Detroit picked him up on a minor league deal, converted him to the pen, and he’s a 1.84 ERA in 29 ⅓ big league innings this season. These kinds of unlikely performances have lifted up the rest of the club, particularly a lineup that hasn’t been able to make contact consistently this season.
2024 Tigers Games Pitched Leaders (bRef)
The Tigers have missed on a few hitters through the draft and otherwise, no debate. Spencer Torkelson is looking like a bust at this point, with a .221 career average as a former `1|1 pick that can’t play any position other than first base. The power has been there at times, but he’s only got a 22HR/162 game rate, not enough for a core player of a franchise. Another example is their most recently acquired star, Javier Báez. Báez has hit only .221 with 32 HR in 360 games, after signing a 6 year/$140M deal. They’ve also hit the mark on a few though, with Riley Greene as a choice example. Greene had a 133 wRC+ this season, and he rates well in left field with a 14 DRS. The Tigers didn’t have their best hitter, Kerry Carpenter, for much of this season, with only 87 games played.Their front office success has been emulated by the lineup’s success: mixed and inconsistent. While Detroit is a strong defensive club, they are probably the weakest offense of the eight clubs in the division series games right now. Even in the game two Wild Card win, the Tigers struck out 13 times in only 34 at bats. The swing and miss has been a problem this season. The lineup has been buoyed by the middle of the order. Greene and Carpenter are the core, but Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling have checked in as above average hitters this season as well. It’s not ideal to have Trey Sweeney and Zach McKinstry playing everyday in the ALDS, but then again the Tigers weren’t planning on being here!
Tigers 2024 OPS+ Leaders (bRef)
With all the buzz in Motor City revolving around the Lions this year, it’s a great surprise to see the Tigers’ improbable comeback. Tiger fans have noticed and they’re more engaged than they have ever been since the Verlander - Miggy years. The Tigers have some exciting players in the show now, with Jobe debuting already and Max Clark on his way. This club may not go the whole way this season, but as the 2003 Marlins and last year's Snakes team showed us, anyone can go on a run in October. The Tigers will have Skubal on the bump today, let’s see if they can put up a fight against their midwest rival. Why can’t Detroit keep this party going?
*Stats are as of 10/6/24