Are Gen Z Pitchers Finally Taking Over for the Older Generation?
Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros (Kevin Cox/AP Photo)
39-year-old Max Scherzer was a blue chip piece acquired at the trade deadline by the Texas Rangers, only to go on and win the World Series. Max had a 3.20 ERA in eight starts in the 2023 regular season, before getting hurt and appearing in only two postseason games. Evenstill, those eight starts were critical to get Texas to the playoffs through a Wild Card, and that proved to be all they needed to make their World Series run. The 3X Cy Young award winner and 2X World Series champion was still relevant as he approached 40 years old. He wasn’t alone either, joined by stars like Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. Verlander won the Cy Young at 39 years old in 2022, his third, before going on to have a solid year in 2023 as well. Finally, Clayton Kershaw managed a 2.46 ERA in 2023, despite a few intermittent injuries. He did have a historically bad NLDS start, but he was an effective starter all year prior to that. In 2024, all three pitchers have struggled with a combination of injuries, declining velocity, and getting hit hard. Are we finally seeing this great group pass the torch to the Gen Z era pitchers?
2024 Max Scherzer Overview (bRef)
Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner both decided to retire at the end of last season. Greinke has won two ERA titles, while MadBum is a 3X World Series Champion. Both had seen their production decline, and they simply weren’t missing bats anymore. Kershaw and Scherzer have been hurt for most of 2024, both making under 10 starts. Verlander has managed to stay healthy, but he’s gotten rocked this year, with a 5.55 ERA. Perhaps even more concerning, is his 8.99 ERA since the All Star break. He looks like toast, and is most likely finished after this season. I should be careful about daring JV to make a comeback though, since he’s managed an entire second career after many writers said he was washed in Detroit. There are a few outliers to this trend of course, namely the probable 2024 NL Cy Young award winner, Chris Sale. Sale hadn’t been able to stay healthy for the last five years, before leading the league in wins, K’s, ERA, and HR rate this season. I’m happy for Sale, but at 35 years old, this may be his swan song as far as Cy Young campaigns go.
2024 MLB starters over 35 years old (Fangraphs)
Of the best examples of a young guy dominating is phenom, Paul Skenes. Skenes graduated college 16 months ago, and he’s got 11 MLB wins with a 1.99 ERA for the Pirates this season. He’s got a solid chance at the NL ROY despite not debuting until May 11th, and he’s only 22 years old. Tarik Skubal broke out for the Detroit Tigers at 27, and appears to be a lock for the AL Cy Young award, with his 2.39 ERA over 21 starts. 25-year-old Hunter Greene had a career year for the Reds this year, with a 2.83 ERA after making a deliberate shift in priorities toward getting deeper in starts and pitching to contact. These are only a few breakouts we’ve seen this season– there are many more. The key starters seem to be less and less of the older generation, as most of the teams chasing a pennant have gotten major contributions from starters under 30. For the Phillies, it’s Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. For the Yankees, it’s Clarke Schmidt and probable AL ROY, Luis Gil. Gil has pitched like a durable ace of the Yankees staff, with a 3.27 ERA over Gerrit Cole’s 3.41 ERA in less starts. Who would have thought Gil would have a better year than the 2023 AL Cy Young winner?
2024 Yankees Rotation (bRef)
Of course, we’ll rarely see a transition or trend like this happen all in one year. You still have Cole, Sale and Phillies ace Zack Wheeler over the age of 34. That said, we’ve seen the game get younger over the past few seasons, but that hasn’t seemed to impact the core pitching from the previous generation until the last couple of seasons. Many of these guys have been durable in a way that we likely won’t see in the foreseeable future, and they pitched without a pitch clock. Randy Johnson threw 250 innings three separate times, while Nolan Ryan did it six times. In JV’s generation, writers gave him an MVP for throwing 251 innings back in 2011, mostly because of how good he was in those starts, but also partially because throwing 250 innings was a rare accomplishment in 2011. For context, none of the Scherzer, Greinke, Sale, Kershaw group threw 250.
2011 AL Innings Pitched Leaders (bRef)
These younger guys throw harder, are scrutinized and managed more than ever, not to mention the pitch clock they’re forced to work with. Hitters have the most analytics they’ve ever had, but so do the pitchers. For better or worse, this is a different generation of pitching. Not one pitcher in the MLB has eclipsed 205 innings this season, a generation after Randy Johnson threw 250 in three separate seasons. The desire for swing and miss has also brought pitch counts up, since it does take more pitches to avoid contact consistently. Greg Maddux won 4 consecutive Cy Young awards by daring hitters to put the bat on the ball, but not many guys even attempt to pitch that way anymore. The numbers are in, and strikeouts correlate positively with ERA. This has led to huge mass movement toward swing and miss, similar to launch angle and exit velocity for hitters. The metrics won’t be going away anytime soon, especially with the new generation of pitching talent breaking out in a big way.
*Stats are as of 9/27/24