Are the Padres the Scariest NL Team?
Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres (Baltimore Sun)
The Padres have made big moves the last few years to go all in, including acquiring and trading Juan Soto. The furthest they’ve gone was the 2022 NLCS, when the Phillies bested them in five games. The Phillies, Braves, and Dodgers have dominated the NL of late, with the Astros dominating the American League over the last several years. This year, the Dodgers are trying to patch together an injury-free starting rotation despite big acquisitions in the offseason. The Braves lineup has seen massive injuries, notably their superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., tearing his 2nd ACL. The Phillies starting pitching has dropped off, and their bullpen is pretty average. With the three NL playoff regulars suffering their own unique setbacks, could we see the Padres finally break out and make a run all the way to the Fall Classic?
In the second half of this season, the Padres have been the best team in baseball. Their record is 37-17 despite having the Snakes (36-20) and the Dodgers (35-21) in the NL West division. The Padres’ 3.61 rotation ERA is behind only the Mets in the National League, and that’s including Matt Waldron’s implosion since the AS break. As you can see below, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, and Dylan Cease all have an ERA under 2.50. 2023 World Series Champion, Martín Pérez, has rounded the staff out nicely behind the big three with a 2.72 ERA in 8 starts since being brought over at the deadline. POBO AJ Preller acquired all four pitchers on behalf of the organization; none are homegrown. This trend continues even when you throw in Yu Darvish and Randy Vasquez; their pitching staff is almost entirely acquired rather than developed. One benefit to this is their playoff experience; both Musgrove and Pérez have World Series rings. Cease and King were acquired in the winter of 2024, and the Padres likely wouldn’t be positioned for a playoff run without those trades.
2024 Padres Starters 2nd Half Stats (Fangraphs)
In conjunction with the starting rotation’s performance, the Friar pen has a 3.04 ERA, also 2nd in the NL since the break. The pen got a huge boost from AJ’s efforts at the trade deadline, when he acquired Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing in a 72 hour window. All have performed well for San Diego and drastically improved their outlook for preserving leads in October. Hoeing and Adam both have an ERA under 1.00 since the trades, while Tanner has a 2.45 ERA for San Diego after carrying a 1.18 ERA for the Marlins. The Brewers’ pen has outperformed them, yet their starting rotation has trailed behind the Padres. The Mets pen is slated 4th, and they could be another dangerous Wild Card club if they can edge out the Braves. The two best teams in the NL this year, the Dodgers and the Phillies, have also been the biggest NL juggernauts in the past few offseasons. However, both clubs are weighted toward offense, with each pitching staff putting up mediocre numbers. The Dodgers, in particular, have been decimated by injuries and lackluster returns from injury. Walker Buehler has a 5.54 ERA, while ace Tyler Glasnow has been ruled out for the year. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is finally healthy and looks sharp, but after him and Jack Flaherty there is a big drop off on the depth chart. Can they really be considered the NL favorite when you consider the lack of a viable playoff rotation? Yamamoto would pitch for game one, Flaherty for game two, and then the uncertainty begins — Landon Knack and maybe Gavin Stone if his shoulder inflammation dissipates?
2024 NL 2nd H Team Bullpen Leaders (Fangraphs)
While the Padres’ pitching in 2024 checks in 5th overall in the NL, so does this offense. Their 108 OPS+ is only one percentage point below the Phillies, who are known as one of most potent offenses in baseball. San Diego leads the National League in batting average at .265, in a league that hits .247. They do check in below-average for stolen bases on the year, and rank only slightly above-average in terms of power. However, they played without Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of the lineup, and the return of a healthy Tatis Jr. in good form can’t be overstated. Tatis Jr. is hitting .298/.310/.614 in 57 at bats since he returned from his femur injury. A healthy Tatis Jr. elevates this offense to a top three unit in the National League, behind the Dodgers and the Phillies. Luis Arráez is hitting .326 since Preller traded for him, and seems to get a hit in every RISP situation (.370) he finds himself in. He’s on his way to a third consecutive batting title, and his efforts are amplified by probable Rookie of the Year, Jackson Merrill and veteran Manny Machado finding his form at the plate. Merrill has also seemingly hit more clutch home runs than anyone in the league, and has played solid defense in center field. Machado found his way to over 100 RBI again, and Jurickson Profar has had a career year. This lineup doesn’t have many weaknesses and their ability to generate contact will make them much harder to put away in the late innings of the postseason.
Padres Individual Hitting Stats (bRef)
Of course, there are multiple paths to success in Major League Baseball, and the most common one is through development. While the Padres did develop some of their guys, like Jackson and Tatis Jr., most of the core of this club has been traded for or signed as a free agent. Even Tatis Jr. was acquired as a minor leaguer for James Shields back in the day. Despite this team being put together by Preller like a puzzle rather than the organic way, they might be the best built club for this postseason. There are several positive indicators, namely starting pitching depth, high leverage relievers galore, and an offense leading the league in batting average. Neither the pitching nor the hitting has a terrible weakness, and the club’s defense is also solid with a few Gold Glove winners and even two Platinum Glove winners. If that doesn’t sound like a winning formula, I don’t know what is.
*Stats are as of 09/20/24