What happened to Camilo Doval?
Camilo Doval of the San Francisco Giants (MLB.com)
Camilo Doval was signed back in 2015 by the Giants for $100K, with youth and a promising slider. He threw in the low 90’s as a teenager, but his fastball ticked up to 95-96 by 2018. His signature delivery is described as energetic, sometimes even violent. That delivery means deception for the hitter, but it has also created command issues for Doval. During High A ball in San Jose back in 2019, Doval walked 34 in 56 ⅓ innings. Prior to his MLB callup in 2021, Camilo walked seven runners per nine in AAA, or 24 free passes in 30 ⅔ innings of work. He got called up anyway, based on a belief in the stuff. The slider was already a plus pitch, and the cutter was performing for Doval.Though only 23 in his rookie campaign, he posted a 3.00 ERA in 29 big league games. Contrary to conventional wisdom, he walked only nine hitters in 27 innings.
Camilo Doval's Minor League Numbers (bRef)
Camilo’s rookie year put him on the map– he was only ranked the #22 prospect in the Giants organization prior to the season. He closed 27 games for the Giants in 2022, with a 2.53 ERA. In 2021, he used his slider 58.4% of the time, and his cutter for the remainder. However, he introduced a sinker in 2022 that he threw 26% of the time. Doval led the league with 39 saves in 2023, making his 1st All Star team as well. He looked to be a high leverage reliever in the mix for the next decade, one of the best in the business. Fast forward to 2024, he’s lost the closer role, got sent down to AAA, and now owns an ERA near 5.00. What happened?
Camilo Doval's Pitch Usage (Baseball Savant)
As the reader may have guessed, Doval’s BB rate is way up. Before 2023, he hadn’t recorded over four walks per nine in an MLB season. In 2024, Camilo walked 35 batters in 51 innings. Additionally, his HR/9 rate has almost doubled from where it was in 2022 and 2023. His confidence is shaky at best, and it’s evident that he’s not trusting his stuff right now. One reason for this is due to hitters reading his cutter better. Last year, opponents hit .173 with a .267 wOBA against the cutter, while this year they’re hitting .274 with a .374 wOBA. This puts pressure on his slider; he’s throwing it over 50% of the time this season. Throwing the slider also means you’re looking for chase, and not throwing as many strikes. This is how you get those games where Doval is walking three guys before giving up a double in the gap.
Doval 2023-2024 Pitch Tracking (Baseball Savant)
Last season, we saw a dip in Doval’s K’s after the break, from 12.5/9 to 10.1/9. We also saw the opponent batting average rise to .253 from .179 in the 1st Half. It wasn’t too alarming though, when you consider that he only gave up 1 HR in 28 appearances after the break. The walks also didn’t increase, which shows his delivery hadn’t betrayed him yet. Hitters put up a .303 average against the sinker in 2023 though, which has ballooned to .345 this season. As shown below, Doval’s sinker is a putrid 73 on the stuff + system, while his cutter has dropped an astonishing 22 points from 2023. His slider has seen a bit of a bump, but not nearly enough to positive the loss on his fastballs (a half a mile an hour drop in velocity, as well as a loss of movement). Even Camilo’s location is down to a career low 95, which makes him a below average reliever even with the dominant slider. With the combo of command problems and decline in stuff +, you have a mediocre reliever who used to be a high level closer. I’m rooting for him to bounce back in 2025, if he can get the zip back in this cutter and start throwing strikes again.
www.baseball-reference.com
*Stats are as of 9/11/2024