Why Hasn't There Been a 50 HR Season in Colorado?
Larry Walker of the Colorado Rockies (MLB.com)
The Rockies have been in the MLB since 1993: 32 seasons including 2024. The feat of hitting 50 home runs in a major league season has been accomplished 43 times by 27 different players. Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa have accomplished this the most times (4). Mark and Sammy got their four seasons consecutively while the Rockies were in existence (per Baseball Reference). Coors Field is notoriously known as a hitter’s haven, and simultaneously a nightmare for a pitcher, more so in fact, than any other park in Major League Baseball. So, one would think at least a few of the 27 players to hit 50 were in a Rockies uniform, right? Wrong, the Rockies single season HR record is held by Hall of Famer Larry Walker, with 49. I’ll provide three reasons that can explain this paradoxical baseball truth.
Rockies All Time Single Season HR record (bRef)
The Rockies All Time Greats are great hitters rather than home run hitters.
Todd Helton tied Larry’s 49 homers in 2001, just four years after Walker set the franchise record. Most recently, Nolan Arenado hit 40 bombs three separate times for Colorado, yet was never able to eclipse 42. Dante Bichette, Andrés Galarraga, and Vinny Castilla all played in the same run heavy era as Todd and Larry, yet none of them were able to hit 50. When we evaluate each of these guys and their skillset as hitters, most of them have at least an above average contact tool. Walker, for example, led the league in homers in 1997 with 49, but he has three batting titles from his time in Colorado. He hit .350 four times, hitting .366 in 1997, yet lost the batting title to Tony Gwynn. Similarly, Andrés was a balanced hitter who hit .288 over his career and averaged 29 home runs per 162 games. Before joining the Rockies at 32, Galarraga was a Gold Glove outfielder who had never hit 30 homers in a season, and ended up hitting 40 homers in back-to-back seasons in Colorado. When you do look at guys who have hit 50 homers in multiple seasons, they are mostly All Time Greats or players whose power defines them. Take for example, a guy like Mark McGwire, who averaged 50 HR per 162 games in his career but hit only .263 in his career. What would his numbers have looked like at Coors Field?
Coors Field is a park for runs rather than home runs.
2022-2024 Park Factor (Baseball Savant)
When looking at the graph above provided by Baseball Savant, one can see that Coors Field is indeed the #1 park for runs and 11% over the #2 park, Fenway. The Rockies are also ahead of Kauffman Stadium and Great American Ball Park. London is actually 27% below average for homers, despite being a very hitter-friendly park. Coors is 5200 feet above sea level, which means the air density is much lower, and the air is thin. The center field is deep though at 415 ft. and wind at other parks can play at least as big a role as air density, if not a bigger one. Peter Hamlington, associate professor in the Paul M. Rady Department of Mechanical Engineering, explains that it’s because the atmospheric pressure is about 20% less than a park at sea level. With less air resistance, the ball can go further, this applies for wind or air density. “Baseballs do travel farther at Coors Field than at other parks, with most estimates citing an increase of 5 to 10% in distance,” said Hamlington.
2022-2024 Baseball Savant HR Park Factor Rankings
Coors was the #1 homer park in 2022, but contrary to public belief, most years it doesn’t rank #1 in the home run factor (see above). In the last three years ranging from 2022-2024, the Rockies have a 8% HR factor at home– perhaps they need more wind. That’s 17 points below the 125 park factor for runs. This is why we’ve seen guys like Walker hit .350 four times at Coors. If you’re wondering, he hit .381/.462/.710 at Coors in his career, so you could say he enjoyed hitting in Colorado. He never hit 50 though, and it makes more sense when you contextualize the Rockies playing in the 8th best park for homers, not the best. Great American, Dodger Stadium, and Yankee Stadium lead the pack, while the Reds home park sits a full 19 percentage points above Coors in home run factor.
The Rockies are a terrible organization.
Even with the 8th biggest advantage for homers, the reader may think it’s unacceptable and puzzling that the Rockies haven’t had a prolific power hitter once. Well, a component of this is their inability to attract talent, develop talent, and win games period. Exhibit A is the 2024 season, another season where the Rockies are the worst team in the National League, even edging out the Miami Marlins. The Monfort family doesn’t generally carry a high payroll, and usually doesn’t hire good executives to run their team either. The Rockies are 17th in payroll in 2024, sandwiched between the Mariners and White Sox, two other organizations in disarray. Their biggest recent investment in a power hitter was Kris Bryant back in March 2022 for 7 years, $182M. Kris has hit .250/.332/.381 in the last three years, and has been hurt constantly. Frankly, he’s terrible now (sorry Kris), and his contract is yet another wrong turn for this franchise.
Now, of course, the even bigger problem for Purple Row is that we rarely experience Rocktober. The Rockies are seldom good, partially because their front office is terrible, but also because their scouting and development aren’t great either. It’s probably the toughest job in the league, the White Sox GM job might be worse. Until Colorado can start to attract talent and establish a brand of winning baseball, I doubt we’ll see a 50 homer hitter in Coors Field. They were able to sign a few big time players in the 90’s, including Walker and Galaragga. They haven’t seen much success in luring free agents this millenia, and this obstacle has impacted their ability to compete. At this point, I’d like to see them win the NL West. Somehow, in 32 years, they’ve never won their division, but it’d be a great thing for baseball to see a competitive Rockies club. A 50 HR hitter would be a welcome bonus.
*Stats are as of 9/4/2024