The State of the Yanks
Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees (Jason Szenes/NY Post)
The Yankees have lost 14 of their last 19 games, including three in a row. New York sits two games behind the Orioles in the East, with a 54-35 record supported by a +96 run differential. They’ve had considerably good fortune with the health of their lineup, and their pitching has been pretty durable, with Gerrit Cole as an obvious exception. Luis Gil’s dominance in April and May rendered the Cole injury acceptable. Gil looked like the favorite for ROY after going 6-0 with 0.70 ERA in May, before crashing down to earth with a 6.45 ERA in June. His first start in July continued to further the hypothesis that Gil’s Cy Young form may have been a beautiful bouquet of dominant starts not to be seen again in 2024. Gil’s hot start has been spurred by a meteoric fall, could the Yankees have a similar fate?
For one, it’s important to contextualize where the Yankees are as a franchise. They’re currently projected at $315M total payroll by Spotac, with an eye popping $61.55M luxury tax bill for the Steinbrenner family that only trails Steve Cohen of the Mets and Mark Walter of the Dodgers. The Steinbrenner family has made it clear they have no intention to pay these kinds of taxes or salaries every year.
“Look, I'm gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we're at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially,” Steinbrenner said. “They wouldn't be sustainable for the vast majority of owners, given the luxury tax we have to pay.”
Juan Soto is a Scott Boras client in a contract year, and he’s making the most of it. La Fiera, or the Wild Beast, is hitting .300 with 21 HR. He’s one dotting it, with a 1.005 OPS and his defense is the best it’s been in years. He’ll likely get north of $500M, which would almost certainly keep the Yankees in CBT territory, paying that luxury tax for years. Yankee fans need to start evaluating the level of sincerity behind Steinbrenner’s comments, because staying under the CBT probably means no Juan Soto in 2025.
Juan Soto 2024 Overview (bRef)
Aside from Soto, their two stars Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole are both on the wrong side of 30. Cole is the reigning Cy Young winner, after leading the league in ERA, games started, and innings in 2023. However, he was out in April and May this year trying to recover from nerve inflammation in his right elbow and avoid Tommy John surgery. He’s now returned, clearly with some rust, which is to be expected. He has struggled in his return so far, with four homers in 13 innings, with plenty of other hard contact that has stayed in the park. Time will tell if Cole can return to form, but we can’t rule out the possibility that he will in fact need TJ surgery.
Anthony Rizzo hasn’t been productive in the last two years, hitting .236/.312/.363 since the start of 2023. That makes him a replacement level product at first base, and how he’s on the 60 day IL with an arm fracture. Given his injury troubles and production woes, the front office will be glad to get Rizzo’s salary off the books. That won’t help the Yankees this October though, with a hole in their lineup and no clear replacement for Rizzo. Ben Rice has been solid, with a .765 OPS in 50 PA’s, but that’s more of a short term solution than a long one. On the side of the diamond, a few feet to Rice’s right is Gleyber Torres, who has also been mediocre in a contract year. Gleyber hit .273 with 25 bombs and scored 90 runs last year, it was a successful season by all accounts. This season is the opposite, he’s hitting .221 with only 8 homers as we approach the All Star break. It’s doubtful that the Yankees make a mid-season upgrade at second, but the possibility is greater than zero. What is probable and almost seems obligatory is an upgrade at first base. Though Pete Alonso and Vlad Jr. are unlikely fits, Christian Walker could be the perfect fit. Walker is in a contract year, he’s a right handed power hitter the Yanks can stick in the middle of the lineup, and he plays gold gloved first base.
Christian Walker 2024 Overview (bRef)
The Yankees have the 2nd best offense in the American League this year behind only the Orioles, a huge improvement from last year. I maintain that they could use a right handed bat, since they rank 7th in the AL vs LHP this year in wRC+. Overall though, the Yankees should be pretty happy with the offensive production they’ve gotten. That said, they’re massively dependent on Soto and Judge. If either has a significant injury, the lineup would look fundamentally different. Acquiring a power hitter would quell a bit of this dependence. I’d also like the Yankees to restock their bullpen. They have a full pitching staff with Cole back, but the bullpen leaves much to be desired. The pen’s 3.65 ERA ranks 7th in the American League, buoyed by surprise performances from Michael Tonkin and Luke Weaver. If these guys are your 7th and 8th inning relievers in October, you’re going to have some problems holding leads. They also don’t have a reliable left handed reliever, which presents obvious matchup problems against lineups like the Orioles and the Astros. The Yankees should be looking at top end relievers on the market, such as Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez. Either of these guys would immediately bolster the Yankees pen, and help them preserve leads down the stretch.
As we’ve outlined, the Yankees have a unique opportunity to go all in this season, which is why Hal seems to be ok with paying a massive luxury tax this year. However, the Orioles are stacked for the next several years, and the Red Sox have an emerging core. The Rays are competitive more often than not, and the Jays seem to be one month away from a full sell. Teams like the Red Sox and Jays implicitly know their direction for the next few years, and the Yankees need to tune in to their situation as well. Judge and Cole aren’t getting any younger, but the massive salaries will still be there when the production dwindles. Judge is 32, and Cole turns 34 in September, while Anthony Volpe is the only core player under 25. Cashman needs to make a splash this offseason and go head on against Baltimore for the AL East– who knows what direction Hal Steinbrenner will go in November? From where I’m sitting, a luxury tax reset might be the next goal for ownership.
*Stats are as of 7/4/24