Which Teams Will Be Selling At The Deadline?

Vlad Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays (Sports Illustrated)

We’ll be entering July on Monday, which is scary fast for die-hard fans. We’re over halfway through the MLB season already, with teams like the Astros making mid-season surges while the Royals are about to be limited to a constitutional monarchy. Most of the teams in the league find themselves in the Wild Card hunt, but not winning their division. Of course, there are a couple bottom-feeders, like the White Sox and Marlins, who will have an inevitable fire sale in a month. The trade deadline is July 30th, which gives teams enough time to let their schedule play a bit more before making a final decision on their goals for the deadline. Let’s evaluate- which teams are definitely going to be selling and who’s available. Furthermore, what teams are sliding toward the dead zone where October is no longer feasible?

The Bottom Feeders- Marlins, Rockies, White Sox, A’s

There’s no chance any of these four teams don’t sell, but the question is whether or not they'll deal beyond their walk year players. For example, the Rockies have indicated they have little interest in trading Ryan McMahon, the best player in Colorado, but he’s got 3 more years of team control after 2024 on a team-friendly extension. However, they likely will be dealing Cal Quantrill, who has a 3.50 ERA this year after essentially being given away by Cleveland this past winter. The Marlins have Jazz Chisholm, the uber talented Bahamian who has to put it all together and reach his star potential. He’s under control for 2025 and 2026, so it would cost a few top 100’s to get a center fielder who’s consistently a 20-20 threat hitting .250 or so. 

Cal Quantrill Overview (bRef)

The most prolific player available this deadline from the White Sox is Luis Robert Jr., as we discussed in depth last week. Robert Jr. has the greatest value of any position player likely on the market in the next month, with three years of team control after 2024. That said, the White Sox also have the recently-converted starter Garrett Crochet, who has a 3.05 ERA and leads the league with 130 K’s this year. He’s under control for 2025 and 2026, and just turned 25 years old. Chicago has a second starter, Erick Fedde, who has a 3.23 ERA in his comeback campaign after pitching in Korea. Finally, the White Sox have rental and veteran hitter, Tommy Pham, who’s posted a 105 wRC+ in 197 plate appearances. He could be a nice, low-cost acquisition for a team in need of a right-handed, veteran hitter. 

As for Oakland, many fans are looking for rookie closer Mason Miller to be moved. To me, that’s highly unlikely, largely because rookies are almost never traded, especially when they’re performing so well. As Jim Bowden points out in his recent Athletic article, the A’s could get a 1st round pick with the new rule if Miller wins AL ROY and isn’t traded. The best player on the club who is likely to get moved is Brent Rooker, a corner outfielder with 30 HR power. Rooker is leading the league in K’s, and he’s also only started a baker’s dozen worth of games in the outfield this year. He’s DH’ing a lot, but that’s acceptable with the 135 wRC+ he’s posted for Oakland these last two seasons. Brent is a late bloomer, but the power looks legit and he’s under control for three more years after 2024.

Teams Falling Behind- Angels, Rangers, Tigers, Jays, Cubs

You may have noticed the first four teams listed are American League— that’s because the NL Wild Card race is tight. It’s quite possible a few teams slide out of a reasonable gap, but right now even the Cubs are only five games out despite their struggles. Angels’ veteran lefty, Tyler Anderson, has a 2.63 ERA despite losing velocity over the years and clocking in at under 90 MPH on his four seam this season. The Angels have more veterans to offer up, including bats like Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo. Ward is a .250 hitter with power, while Rengifo is hitting .315 this year. For teams looking with closer experience, Carlos Estevez has 47 saves over the last year and a half. 

The Texas Rangers aren’t really built to sell at this point, having just inked Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to long term deals a few years ago. They’re the defending champions, and may feel their slow start is attributed more to injuries than poor performance. Evenstill, this offense only has two above-average hitters this season, and neither Adolis Garcia nor Semien is one of them. If the Rangers did decide to sell, I would imagine it would be pitching, namely two time World Series champ Nathan Eovaldi and fellow right hander Michael Lorenzen. Much of the pitching staff is set to hit the market this year or next, so the Rangers have some planning to do. 

Nate Eovaldi Overview (bRef)

The Tigers have Cy Young favorite, Tarik Skubal, under team control for two more seasons after 2024. The lefty is 9-3 with a 2.32 ERA, and finally has a chance to put together a full season. The guy destined to change uniforms from the Tigers this year is Jack Flaherty, the veteran starter on a ‘prove it’ deal. Flaherty looks better than he has in years, and could be a major contributor for a contending club shy of a starter. 

The Jays will be an interesting one, particularly if they trade either Bo Bichette or Vlad Jr. Trading Bo now would be selling low with the struggles he’s had, but Vlad Jr. has looked very good and could certainly be traded for quite a haul. The other pieces on the block are less interesting but productive, starters like Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi , who can plug in as your 3rd or 4th starter down the stretch.

In the NL, the Cubs find themselves on the tail-end of the Wild Card race. Cody Bellinger rumors are heating up, while the Cubs are still only a hot stretch away from being back in the thick of the race. Shota Imanaga has been brilliant, and Michael Busch has been a pleasant surprise. Still, with a -26 run differential and sitting seven games below .500, does it really make sense to hold on to Belly?

A Bad Stretch Away- DBacks, Nationals, Rays, and More

It’s crazy to think that Arizona was in the World Series last season. They find themselves 3.5 games out of a Wild Card, which is within striking distance. If they go on either a 10 winning streak or a 10 game losing streak, it would likely be the difference in which direction the organization went this deadline. If they do sell, they could move Paul Sewald, as well as veteran hitters Joc Pederson and Ketel Marte. Peterson ended up being a steal for $12.5M. I doubt the Snakes expected him to hit .282 on top of the power he typically provides.

For the sake of time, we’ll only list three clubs here. The Nationals are not going to make a serious run this year, so I could see them move a bullpen piece like Kyle Finnegan or a veteran hitter like Lane Thomas. Jesse Winker is a free agent at the end of the year, and he’s got a 132 wRC+. It’s hard to imagine him and his .377 OBP in a Nationals uniform come September. 

Jesse Winker Overview (bRef)

The Rays are not going to compete for the AL East, but they’re not quite out of the Wild Card either. They have a few veterans to move, specifically Randy Arozarena. Randy is under team control for a few more years, and he’s finally hitting this month after a dismal start. He’d be a huge addition for a young contending team, he’s a career .336 October hitter with 11 homers in 33 Post Season games.

Buy-Buy Deals and More

We’ve seen the Mets surge back into relevance this past month or so. They only sit one game behind in the Wild Card race. This is a great example of how much can happen in one month of baseball, and we will see clubs change their trajectory for better or worse in July. Pete Alonso might not get traded after all, which seemed like a near certainty only a few weeks ago. The Cards are in line for a playoff berth, despite a -37 run differential. The Houston Astros have surged in the American League, 4.5 games out of the WC and 5.5 out of the AL West. 

Contending also doesn’t totally rule out a buy-buy trade, in which a team like the Red Sox or Astros might flip a major league talent (e.g. Kenley Jansen) for something else they need more on the roster. Could the Astros move Alex Bregman at the deadline to set up for 2025 and 2026? If the Orioles do decide to make a big trade, I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t include a rookie bat like Heston Kjerstad in the package. So much is up in the air, it’s a beautiful thing to see. Do you love the roster structure, contract side of baseball or watching the game itself more? Sometimes, I’m not sure myself.

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*Stats are as of 6/28/2024