3 Top Trade Destinations for Luis Robert Jr.
Before delving into the Luis Robert Jr. trade possibilities, we have to break down Robert Jr.’s player profile, scouting report, and the necessary criteria for a team to be considered a reasonable fit for Robert Jr. Looking at his player profile, Robert Jr. has a Gold Glove in center field from 2020 and a Silver Slugger from 2023. The caveat is that last year is the only 100+ game season on Robert Jr.’s MLB résumé, but the season showed us he’s a top 25 player in the MLB when he’s healthy. When you hear Gold Glove center fielder and 38 HR in the same sentence, you probably think superstar like I do. When Robert Jr. looks good, he looks better than almost anyone in the game.
Luis is still 26 (his birthday is in August), and has 3.5 years of team control left. Several years of team control for a 5.0 bWAR player, who happens to play on the worst team in the American League…. It doesn’t take long to calculate that Robert Jr. has a very high probability of being traded by Chris Getz and the White Sox at this year’s trade deadline. Similar to the scenario with Dylan Cease this past winter, why wait and let more team control wither away? Maximize the package by dealing with him now, right?
It’s time to poke a few holes in the superstar narrative. Luis is hitting .193 this year, with a terrible 38.2% K rate near the bottom of the league. He is still excelling in peripherals like exit velocity and barrel, but the results haven’t been there. Honestly, neither has his effort. Robert Jr. seemed to lackadaisically drop a routine fly ball this week, and did not appear to really care. He says he wants to stay in Chicago, and maybe he will if he keeps dropping fly balls. He’d be an instant impact player on a new playoff team, but the aforementioned durability issues, paired with high K rates and questionable effort, could definitely give any organization pause to go all in on the young star.
Now, before we provide three top trade destinations for Robert Jr., we need to qualify the conditions to take an organization seriously as a contender. First, the team needs to have a need for center field without major commitments at the position. To me, the best example here of a bad fit might be the Seattle Mariners. They have franchise player Julio Rodríguez in center field, and putting Luis in a corner would take helium out of the 5.0 bWAR that his new team will be expecting. Second, there needs to be a competitive window that covers every year of his team control through the 2027 season. Some teams, like the Houston Astros for example, might not be competitive in two or three years. Therefore, this move isn’t the best fit for a club like Houston. Third, I want to consider the power needs of each major league club. Is a 35 HR bat the missing piece for a lineup to support a solid pitching staff during a postseason run? An example of a team that doesn’t really fit here would be the Yankees or the Orioles, two teams that have no shortage of power in their lineup.
3) Cleveland Guardians
Why: Cleveland needs a center fielder and they need power. They’re 6.5 games up in the AL Central and are the heavy favorite to win the division. However, the front office also recognizes that their division has been the weakest in the AL for the last few years, and there hasn’t been a World Series champion in the AL Central since the Royals in 2015. To compete with clubs like the Orioles and the Yankees, The Guard Dogs need another middle of the order star to pair with Jose and the elder Naylor brother. Another reason I like Luis for Cleveland is because of the team control over the next 3+ years. Cleveland has a window with their core and they’ve had the best bullpen in the league this year.
Why Not: The Guardians aren’t exactly known for large payrolls or blockbuster deals at the trade deadline. If anything, they’ve been on the sell side in recent memory. The Guardians are also a heavy favorite to win the division without Robert Jr., so they may hold and not do too much. Lastly, and certainly not least, Cleveland is in Chicago’s division. If you were Chris Getz, would you trade Luis in your division to face your former star and get terrorized for several games every year in the near future?
2) Philadelphia Phillies
Why: The Phillies are clearly in win-now mode. They’ve been to two consecutive NLCS series, and lost the World Series back in 2022 to the Astros. While Johan Rojas has flashed elite defense in center, his bat has been bad enough that he got sent down to AAA. Brandon Marsh can play center field, but the Phillies seem to prefer having him in LF. The Phillies need an outfield bat – corner or center – even if it doesn’t end up being Robert Jr.
Why Not: The Phillies have the best pitching staff in baseball right now, with a 2.97 ERA. They also have the 5th best offense in the MLB in 2024, with back to back years of postseason success. Simply put, they might not feel like they need to trade the best piece of their farm system for a player like Robert Jr., who does have his warts.
1) Milwaukee Brewers
Why: Right now, Blake Perkins is the Brewers’ center fielder. Perkins is a great defender, but is hitting .231 as a big leaguer and looks lost at the plate. Sal Frelick can play center and hit .250 or so, but he doesn’t really possess the power of a modern everyday player. The Brewers also could benefit from some added power– they’re 15th in the MLB in bombs this season. The lineup could look like Turang, Contreras, Luis Robert Jr., Yelich, Willy, and so on. Milwaukee is different from Philly in the sense that they don’t have recent postseason success. They also don’t have the pitching dominance Philly has– they’re 16th in starting pitching ERA. If they are going to make a postseason run in 2025, Milwaukee can make a multi-year acquisition in Robert Jr., one that allows their front office to continue their pursuit of a 2025-2027 competitive window.
Why Not: The Brewers are another Central team that doesn't have a reputation for huge splashes. They seemed to be looking toward 2025 when they traded Corbin Burnes and cut Brandon Woodruff amid his injury status. The Brewers have gone all in on major players in the past, acquiring CC Sabathia from Cleveland back in 2008. Sabathia rewarded them in a major way with a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts. The World Series eluded Milwaukee, but CC got his with the Yankees the following year. Outside of the apparent blueprint, I also think the Brewers recognize that they’ve over-performed so far this year. Even so, they have an 83.6% chance of making the playoffs at this point according to Fangraphs, so it seems unlikely that they tank themselves out of a postseason berth. I’d love to see them make a major move for someone like Luis.
*Stats are as of 6/21/24