Three Underrated MLB Moves of Winter 2025
Pete Alonso of the New York Mets (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
Fans are concerned about a lack of parity with the Dodgers’ and Mets’ dominant offseasons riddled with massive spending. The Dodgers acquired Ohtani and Yamamoto last season, and just added Roki, the best prospect in baseball. The Mets inked the largest free agent contract in MLB history, but let’s not forget the other side of the equation. You have several clubs benefiting from revenue sharing, some of which are making between $50M and $100M in EBITDA on an annual basis, yet can’t seem to find $25M to sign a good player. Does the Mets spending a billion dollars preclude the Marlins from spending $20M on an outfielder? Most certainly not, and you do see some mid-market clubs making plays for stars, such as the Diamondbacks landing Corbin Burnes. I’d love to put Corbin’s signing on this list, but it’s hard to qualify a Cy Young award winner signing as being underrated. There are some other honorable mentions for the winter, including the Reds hiring Tito Francona and the Tigers bringing Jack Flaherty back on a prove-it deal for $25M. Danny Jansen is a good example of the Rays’ bargain shopping, managing to sign their starting catcher for $8.5M despite a super thin catching market that evaporated overnight. I would like to find some time to be critical and categorize some of the moves as overrated, but that’ll have to be a separate piece.
3) December 13th: New York Yankees acquired RHP Devin Williams from the Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Nestor Cortes and 2B Caleb Durbin.
The Brewers are pretty shrewd and many fans, including myself, immediately noticed a healthy starter with a good résumé being traded for a reliever. Not to mention Durbin, an athletic middle infielding prospect with six years of control. However, while folks point to Devin’s lack of playoff success, he is a total stud when healthy. Over the last five seasons, Williams has led all National League relievers with a 1.70 ERA, and the next closest guy is 37 points away at 2.07. He’s one of the top bullpen guys in the game, and the Yankees were obviously lacking a shutdown closer last season. Luke Weaver filled in admirably to replace Clay Holmes, but it’s more ideal to have Weaver as a set up guy given his lack of closing experience.
NL Reliever ERA Leaders 2019-2024 (Fangraphs)
Looking at the return the Brewers got, I think Matt Arnold and the front office did well with the trade for what they were trying to do. Everyone knew they intended to move Williams this winter, and Cortes is a nice rotation piece for 2025. Cortes became expendable to the Yankees when they signed Max Fried, particularly given Nestor’s frustrations in how he was utilized in 2024. Caleb Durbin has a .374 OBP in the minor leagues, but he is only 5’ 6” and likely has the ceiling of a utility player given his lack of power. Good move for Milwaukee, but great move for the Yankees. They got exactly what they needed for 2025, it was obvious to those who watched this past October run.
2) February 3rd: Tampa Bay Rays signed free agent SS Ha-Seong Kim to 2 Year/ $29M Contract
Looking back, I definitely underestimated the impact that Ha-Seong’s shoulder injury would have on his free agent market. However, even with the labrum surgery, this is a typical Rays bargain to rehab an All Star caliber player. Ha-Seong is an elite defender, and you can plug him in at 2B, 3B, or short. You could use him as a utility player, but he may be too good not to play everyday at short or second. Kim is a 4-5 bWAR player over a full healthy season, and the Rays were able to get him for $14.5M AAV despite a win being worth somewhere in the range of $8-10M on the open market.
With this deal, both parties maintain their flexibility as the Rays can move Kim if he has a strong first half, which actually seems highly likely if the Rays aren’t competitive by August. If Kim takes longer to get going or the Rays are in the thick of a playoff race, he can continue to play a critical role on the club. Kim will make $13M in 2025, and maintains his flexibility with a $16M player option for 2026. If he puts up another 4-5 bWAR season, he’s likely hitting the market again. I like the idea of Kim’s presence around Junior Caminero, who could certainly benefit from being around the elite Gold Glove defender. Ha-Seong will steal 30 bags for you, hit 15 or so homers, and put up roughly average offensive production paired with his elite defense. How many four-win players do you see getting less than $15M on the open market?
Ha-Seong Kim Rays Contract ( Spotrac)
1) February 6th: Mets re-signing Polar Bear to 2 Year/ $54M Contract
The Mets will have to pay heavy taxes on Pete’s deal, but the good news is Steve Cohen can afford it. With the negotiations being so public and discourse being largely pessimistic of Pete, we are significantly underrating the #1 HR hitter in the NL over the last five years. That’s not cherry picking either, he’s also #1 over the last three and four years respectively. 2024 was a down year for him, hitting only 34 HR instead of his typical 40+. Pete’s the kind of power hitter who likely would have gotten a huge deal 20 years ago, but front offices have wisened to the regression that power hitters face in their late thirties.
NL Homer Leaders 2019-2024 (Fangraphs)
Polar Bear is very good at picking bad throws out of the dirt, even if he does lack some range. He’s a better defender than numbers suggest, and WAR is a stat that seems to beat down first basemen unless they’re one dotting in the OPS column. He’s a .249 career hitter, which is actually slightly above the league right now, so he’s got an average contact tool. The ++ power is enough for me to justify $54M over the next two years. 2026 is a player option for $29M so Alonso can opt out if he hits 50 homers this year. Outside of the box score, there is a soft power component to Pete as well. Queens loves him, and Steve knows it. This is a big win to be able to bring Alonso back, even if the tough negotiations strained the relationship a bit. I’d like to see the Mets extend him, they have been his team for years now and Cohen can afford to overpay the face of the franchise by a few million (or ten) dollars.