Tragedy in Seattle

John Stanton, owner of the Seattle Mariners (MLB Trade Rumors)

The Mariners have spent north of $30M only once in the last nine offseasons, despite significant fan and pundit pressure to spend money on talent. Fans have been beating that drum even harder in the last few years, due to the talented core of Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and the best starting rotation in the American League. Competitive windows rarely last as long as organizations believe they will; the Astros window could be closing as we speak, with the departure of Alex Bregman and the Kyle Tucker trade. The AL West is up for grabs, yet the Mariners hadn’t spent a dime before they signed Donovan Solano this week. Seattle is one of the wealthiest cities in the world, but somehow the baseball team has no money? What’s the deal there?

Well to start, the club owner, John Stanton, relishes the $80M+ EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) he nets annually as the profiteer of the Mariners. The Mariners’ revenue is also at an all-time high, with $396M in revenue in 2023 according to Statista. The Mariners payroll in 2017 was $160M, and with a conservative inflation rate of 2.6%, the Mariners should be spending about $197M per Aaron Levine of Fox Sports. Despite this, the Mariners payroll limit is said to be $160M for 2025. Ironically, the 2017 team went 78-84, but this Mariners roster has been a game or two away from the playoffs the last two seasons. Could the Mariners have made the playoffs if they had signed an All Star power hitter for the middle of the lineup? The pitching staff could have made a deep October run, if their offense was able to do better than the .224 line they finished at. Asking your lineup to hit .230 isn’t asking for much when you consider yourself a contender.

Mariners Revenue by Year (Statista)

What separates the Mariners from tragedy, like the Rockies or the Angels let’s say, is that they do some things really well. They are great at identifying and recruiting amateur talent both domestically, as well as internationally (e.g. Julio, Laz Montes, Felnin Celesten). The Mariners development is also considered to be solid across the org, particularly with the pitching side. To use a few guys from the present core as examples, Jerry drafted Logan Gilbert, Cal Raleigh, and George Kirby in two drafts. Now again, the Mariners find themselves with a top-five farm system, with middle infielders Cole Young and Colt Emerson as headliners. There’s been many off the radar development successes, particularly out of the bullpen (e.g. Snider, Voth, Topa, Saucedo). However, you need complimentary talent around the core and the off-the-radar guys to make deep October runs. We’ve seen this several times in recent years, like the 2023 World Series Champion Texas Rangers. Guys like Josh Jung and Jonah Heim were homegrown, but Chris Young and the front office added Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and spent over $590M in the 2022 offseason to bolster the roster for an October run. Unfortunately, we’re not going to see the Mariners pay $200M for an infielder anytime soon. 

2022 Offseason Spending by Team (Spotrac)

As a small market club now, the margins are thin for success in development, trades, and free agency. In the 2024 offseason, the Mariners spent $24M on Mitch Garver, who hit .172 and was below replacement level as the team’s primary DH and backup catcher. Jerry Dipoto and the front office also went out and acquired Jorge Polanco from the Twins, as well as trading for Mitch Haniger in a salary exchange deal with the Giants. Jorge struggled defensively at second base, and had arguably the worst full season of his career. Haniger finished below replacement level, striking out at a 29.8% clip and playing terrible defense in right field. In an effort to create more budget for free agency, the front office attached Jarred Kelenic to Marco Gonzales and Evan White in a salary dump deal with Atlanta. They also dumped Eugenio’s salary in the deal with the Snakes. They only got Seby Zavala, third string catcher, and AAA flame thrower Carlos Vargas. Again, with a payroll of $140-$150M, you aren’t signing many free agents and therefore you have to win the majority of your trades. This is one area where the Seattle front office has fallen short recently. 

Jorge Polanco Profile (bRef)

One recent trade that reflects well on the Mariners was moving José Caballero for Luke Raley. Raley is a middle-of-the-order bat, and he plays both corner outfield spots as well as first. However, Raley is already 30 years old and more of a supplemental piece than a core guy. Raley is also a free agent after the 2028 season, as well as George Kirby and Andrés Muñoz. Gilbert and Cal are free agents after 2027, and Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford are free agents after 2026. There are lineup reinforcements coming through the org, but guys like Laz Montes and Colt Emerson are highly unlikely to contribute much before 2027. Even then we don’t know which of these guys will be good, or how productive they’ll be. The system is deep enough where we can say with confidence that the Mariners have few that work out, but will guys like Cal Raleigh and Logan Gilbert be extended to stay with the next generation?

In order to bridge the gap between prospect generations, you need to supplement with major league talent via free agency and trade. A solid everyday player in the MLB should have a WAR of about 3 wins. If a win is worth about $8M-$9M, we can estimate that an everyday bat will cost around $24-$27M on the free agent market. With this context, it’s not difficult to see how $15M budget for an entire offseason is not enough to build with. $15M doesn’t even buy an everyday bat anymore, Teoscar got 3/$66M and Willy Adames got 7/$182M this winter. This Mariners offense has been mediocre for years, and that’s not going to get fixed over night without adding major league talent. Development takes too long, so the other option to free agency is the trade market. Unfortunately, prospects aren’t trading at high prices in this seller’s market. Seattle wanted a back-end starter and a young controllable hitter for Luis Castillo, but that’s likely above market price for a 32-year-old starter owed over $72M in the next three seasons. Since prospects aren’t netting enough of a return right now, there aren’t really many paths to a trade unless the Mariners are willing to part with one of their starting pitchers. Seattle talked for years about Roki Sasaki, and ended up not even being serious contenders to land him. There’s been helium in multiple high end free agents, none of which have come to Seattle recently. If John Stanton doesn’t sacrifice some of that $80M+ in profit to get a few players in the next 12-18 months, his legacy will be wasting the best Mariners roster in over 20 years.