Who’s Left on the Market? Part 3: Pitching
Tanner Scott of the San Diego Padres (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Yesterday, we saw the Reds trade for Gavin Lux following the Dodgers signing of Hyeseong Kim. We also saw the A’s ink star DH Brent Rooker to a five-year, $60M extension, as well as Chris Martin signing a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers. Six teams have spent zero dollars, while the Mets have spent about $918M themselves. The majority of the premier free agents have signed at this point, but perhaps the #1 asset in the market this winter, Roki Sasaki, has still not made a decision on his MLB home. Since we’ve covered every positional market, that leaves us with the starting pitching space, as well as the pen.
Starting Pitching
This has been the #1 market so far this winter, with $1.09B being spent on rotation arms. Ironically, perhaps the best prize on the market won’t cost more than a few million dollars, in Roki Sasaki. He put himself on the international map during the WBC when he blew a 102 MPH by Randy Arozarena. Back in 2022, he also threw 17 consecutive perfect innings in the NPB, flashing triple digit heat and a nasty splitter. No one seems to really have a beat on where the 23 year old will sign, but I would expect it to be a West Coast team with a history of signing Japanese talent. Sasaki is far and away the best option on the market, he has a 2.10 ERA with 505 strikeouts across four seasons (394.2 IP) in NPB.
He could potentially be a top 10 pitcher in the league right away and he’s going to cost almost nothing for the next six years because he’s an amateur free agent.
2025 MLB Offseason Spending by Position (Spotrac)
Outside of Roki, you still have middle rotation arms like Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta available north of the $20mil/year range over multiple years. Teams looking for shorter commitments can look toward 40+ year old Hall of Famers, such as Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander or an older sinkerball lefty like Jose Quintana. Jose may not have the resume of Mad Max or Verlander, but the 36 year old has been much more durable and is coming off a better year (3.75 ERA in 31 starts) than either of the Cy Young winners. There are also some options for inning eaters, such as Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Flaherty and Sasaki may be the only free agents left that you would want on the bump in a Wild Card start, some teams will have to pivot to the trade market for front-of-the-rotation guys.
There have been rumors about Luis Castillo going to the Red Sox or the Orioles, largely because offloading Castillo’s salary would allow Jerry Dipoto to actually sign a major league hitter. The complication there is that the Mariners want a young controllable hitter, in a conjunction with a back-end starter to replace Castillo. That’s a lot to ask for a guy who is owed over $72M over the next three years, and has shown some signs of regression. After the Red Sox acquired Garrett Crochet, Castillo is one of the only frontline starters available via trade. The Padres are desperate to get their payroll down, so it’s not impossible to imagine them dealing Dylan Cease in exchange for a few affordable Major League players. The Twins are in a similar payroll position and they could part with Pablo López, a mid-rotation starter under control for the next three seasons. Zac Gallen could net a huge return for the Snakes in a contract year, as would Framber Valdez. I’m not sure how available these two are with both clubs competing within their respective divisions. Marcus Stroman is the odd man out in New York, and highly likely to be moved this winter, while Erick Fedde is an obvious trade candidate because he pitches for the Cards right now. Fedde is coming off a career 3.30 ERA in 31 starts, while Stroman had a mediocre 4.31 ERA for the Yankees.
Luis Castillo Contract (Spotrac)
Closers
Closer Devin Williams was one of two dominant closers available via trade, but the Yankees snatched him up. Another option is Ryan Helsley, part of the Cardinals’ fire sale. Helsley is in a contract year, and seems poised for another big season after leading the league in saves and games finished in 2024. Tampa Bay’s closer, Pete Fairbanks, is in a contract year and has a 2.67 ERA over the last three years. There are also still All Star options available on the closer free agent market, such as Tanner Scott and Carlos Estévez. Scott had a 1.75 ERA last year and is the premier lefty on the market, while Estevez is the reliable but less dominant closer. Jeff Hoffman only closed 10 games last season for Philly, but seems ready for a closer role after a few dominant seasons out of the pen. Kirby Yates will be 38 on opening day, but he’s coming off a career best 1.17 ERA, besting his 1.19 ERA from 2019. There is some concern about how Yates will do with a velocity drop, since he only really throws the fastball and splitter. Even still, he was as dominant as any other reliever in 2024, except for maybe Emmanuel Clase.
Kirby Yates 2024 Metrics (Baseball Savant)
A tier below the aforementioned names, you have veteran closers like David Robertson and Kenley Jansen, who aren’t quite as dominant as they were in their prime. Kenley still put up 10.2K/9 last year, while Robertson had an elite 33.3% K rate in 2024. Kyle Finnegan had 66 saves in the last two seasons with the Nationals, but he got hit pretty hard last year and isn’t seen as a reliable closer by most clubs.
Relievers
Guys like Robertson and Jansen could certainly be deployed in the 7th and 8th innings, but I would anticipate Kenley only taking a closing job. I’m not sure if Jeff Hoffman would be willing to pitch the 8th inning, but he’d be one of the best options in the league if so. Hoffman was drafted as a starter, but he had a 2.28 ERA coming out of the pen for the Phillies in 2023 and 2024. Blake Treinen, Aroldis Chapman, and company are off the board, but there are several solid options available. On the right-handed side, Andrew Kittredge, Buck Farmer, and Tommy Kahnle could probably each be signed for under $10M. Ryan Pressly has closed for the Astros, and pitched the 8th, so he could presumably be signed for either job. Lefty AJ Minter is coming off a hip surgery but he, Scott Alexander, and Andrew Chafin are a few solid south paws left on the free agent market.
Andrew Kittredge 2024 Metrics (Baseball Savant)
There are always relievers available via trade if you’re willing to overpay, one of the bigger names being lefty Andrew Nardi in Miami. Nardi had a 5.07 ERA in 2024, but interested front office clubs see the 33.3% chase and 2.76 xERA. David Bednar is a 2X AS closer for the Pirates, but he was clobbered last year and posted a 10.7% walk rate. Contending teams will likely see him as a plan B to close, rather than a closer on opening day.