Who's left on the Market? Part 2: Outfield
Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox (Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP)
Since our infield edition of this exercise late last week, the Dodgers extended Teoscar Hernández to a three-year, $66M deal. Then, in a shocking turn of events, Corbin Burnes agreed to spend his next six years with the Snakes. Corbin is the new ace in the desert, and he doesn’t have too bad of a commute either, with his young family living in Scottsdale. The first base market and catcher market dried up pretty quickly, while the DH market and left field market have also seen some shifts in the holiday week. There are still plenty of clubs who’d like to trade for Luis Robert Jr. or sign Anthony Santander. Time is running out to put together the right roster, and so are the options. Let’s break down the outfield market in part two, followed by pitching in the final piece.
Left Field
The Dodgers have now inked two of the better corner outfield options on the market, Teoscar Hernández and Michael Conforto. Lefty masher Tyler O’Neill came off the board early in the winter, while the other weak side platoon, Randall Grichuk, is still on the market. Jurickson Profar is the most complete left fielder still without a home, but his success has come almost exclusively with the Padres. Profar posted a .709 OPS in six seasons before San Diego, and he carries a .753 OPS while donning the brown and gold. He’ll be 32 on opening day, and he’s coming off a career year in which he posted a .380 OBP. Beyond Profar, you do have Alex Verdugo as an option. Duggie is a glove-first left fielder, who battled an allergy versus his own batting gloves this season. He was terrible at the plate in 2024, but he hit .281 with a .761 OPS for the Red Sox before the rare Yankees-Sox trade placed him in the Bronx.
Two of the better trade options in left field are teammates in Anaheim, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward. Trout is an all time great and he’s always played center, but he’s constantly injured and he’s in his mid-thirties now. Sticking Trout in left could keep him healthy and allow him to focus more on his at bats. However, it’s more likely the Angels keep Trout and move Ward instead, who is a .250 hitter with 25 HR power. Ward is only 31, doesn’t kill your outfield defense like a Jesse Winker would, and he’s under team control for two more years. The Phillies owe Nick Castellanos $40M over the next two seasons, and he’s been a 105 OPS+ hitter over the last three seasons for Philly. He’s a pretty bad defender though in right field, and may not even be able to handle left field. Sticking him in left allows you to essentially keep two DH bats in your lineup.
Taylor Ward Career Stats (bRef)
Center Field
There weren’t any true solid everyday center fielders on the free agent market this year– Harrison Bader is probably the closest resemblance. He’s a Gold Glove defender, but he’s only hit .239/.284/.360 over the past three years. Cody Bellinger was the most widely available center fielder on the trade market, and the Yankees were able to acquire him for little more than taking on the majority of Belly’s salary. Luis Robert Jr. is a star player on a historically bad team desperate to trade him. Unfortunately for all parties, Robert Jr. had a career worst season and the team control years continue to diminish. Chris Getz and the White Sox are asking for such a haul that it may make more sense to pivot to another All Star, Cedric Mullins. Mullins is a roughly average defender in center, he’s only 30 years old and entering a contract year. Though he’s only a career .252 hitter, he’s got 15 HR power and will steal 30 bags or so a year. If and when the Blue Jays come to their senses and officially close the window, 2024 GG CF Daulton Varsho would become available. Similar to Bader, he’s a sub .700 OPS guy. He does have some pop, but he’s hit only .217 over the last two years for Toronto. There are a few other less desirable options, like taking a chance on Ji Hwan Bae, or signing Michael A. Taylor as a stopgap.
Luis Robert Jr. Profile (bRef)
Right Field
In right, Santander is easily the best option as the only 40 HR bat on the outfield market. The problem is, Santander is pretty one dimensional. He’s young, but he’s a bad defender in right, and he’s also only a .246 career hitter compared to Teoscar’s .263, for instance. He’s really the only everyday right fielder available to sign, but Grichuk could play right in a platoon. There are also plenty of options via trade. Kyle Tucker will play right for Chicago, which could make Seiya Suzuki an option, unless Jed Hoyer plans on slotting him at DH. The Cardinals seem to be blowing it up, and Lars Nootbaar is a solid all-around right fielder with three seasons of team control. He’s only 27 years old, and he posted an elite 16.9% chase rate, which ranked in the 100th percentile last year. ROY contender Wilyer Abreu is blocking the #1 prospect in baseball in Fenway’s right field, so he might actually get traded after a fantastic rookie campaign. For a club looking for a left handed power bat for rent, Mike Yastrzemski could almost certainly be pried away from San Francisco for the right package. The price will be higher due to the scarcity of power hitters in the free agent market, as there isn’t much after Santander and Pete Alonso.
Lars Nootbaar 2024 Hitting Metrics (Baseball Savant)
DH
Speaking of power, DH used to be the slot for your aging 40 HR hitter who couldn't move well enough to play a defensive position (e.g. David Ortiz or Frank Thomas). The position has changed over the years, especially with the recent expansion of DH to the National League. Many clubs prefer to use the DH as a day off from the field for veterans, cycling them through to keep everyone fresh. Some clubs prefer to use a platoon the way Arizona did last year with Joc Pederson and Grichuk. Some clubs don’t feel the 30 HR power is a necessity at DH ,as long as the player is productive offensively. That is where I sit as well, and while I know that Luis Arráez is worth less as a DH, I think it could make sense for the 3X batting title champ. Arráez is in the last year of his arb with the Padres, and is greatly incentivized to get a fourth batting title in 2025. Another DH with strong contact ability, Masataka Yoshida, is owed $55.8M over the next three seasons and the Red Sox would love to offload the contract. He is coming off of a shoulder surgery, but he’s hit .285 in 1001 plate appearances stateside. If a team is willing to absorb the salary, he could be paired with either a prospect or additional major league talent. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Oakland is looking to trade Brent Rooker, but Ryan O’Hearn of the O’s is entering a contract year. Mike Elias would likely flip him for Major League innings.
Masataka Yoshida Contract (Spotrac)
Both Joc and Carlos Santana are off the board, but JD Martinez and Justin Turner are still available on the free agent market as older hitters in their final years. Martinez still has an excellent barrel rate and exit velo, while Turner’s bat speed is non-existent. Turner has a pro’s approach though, and he’s already adjusted to having no bat speed, while some other veteran hitters are still waiting for father time to rip it away.