NahNorth of the Border Mid Summer & Trade Deadline Breakdown

Graphic from the Blue Jays

I can admit when I am wrong, and I will start this article by doing so. My gut feeling and subsequent doubling down couldn't have been more wrong – I thought the Jays would have the same magical turn around as last year, but alas, the stars have not aligned.

At the time of writing, the Jays sit 6 games under .500, i.e. last place in the A.L East, but luckily, the American League has been so mediocre this year that the Jays are only 3 games behind the last wild card spot. However, the eternal optimist in me is losing sight of the hope I had for this season. 

If I had to break down my thoughts on what has transpired so far, I think part of Toronto's issue has been injuries. As per Spotrac Injury List, the Jays have lost 1,525 main games to injury, which accumulates to $55,081,087. Players on the list include Cody Ponce, Anthony Santander, Yimi García, José Berríos with Trey Yesavage and Jameson Taillon as possible additions. Each one of the current  players on the I.L. were expected to play a significant role in solidifying this roster and proving last year wasn't just luck.

As the trade deadline approached, all of Jays Nation knew they were sellers, but to what extent, fans weren't sure. A few players that I thought would be moved were George Springer, Shane Bieber, Andrés Giménez and Nathan Lukes. Players that were moved were Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman, Daulton Varsho and highly touted Jays prospect Arjun Nimmala. I like moving the two expiring contracts for depth pieces, and I think a fresh start for Hoffman was needed. I am a believer that you cannot put all the World Series Game 7 blame on him.

I think a lot of fans were taken by surprise with the Jays approach though, as they brought  in a few young, controllable pitchers. The addition of José Soriano is very intriguing, as he has had a decent 2026 season so far and he still has 2 years of team control left. To begin the season, newly acquired Spencer Arrighetti put up phenomenal numbers, but has recently been on the I.L. I am hopeful Pete Walker can work his magic on him, when he is ready to pitch. The one thing the Jays needed and didn't get, shockingly, was a big bat for the lineup. In my opinion, I don't think they needed to get a bonafide star, but at least a bat to protect Vladdy in the lineup. The lack of pop in the lineup has been surprising to say the least.

My report card for the trade deadline is a solid B. 

As for the regular season, the Jays get a respectable C-.

In closing, do I think a wild card spot is possible, but not very likely. However, anything can happen in a 162 game season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Standard & Advanced Metrics via Fangraphs

Hot takes, Observations and Questions from around the MLB

- The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't bad for baseball, their ownership is not afraid to use their financial power and top rated farm system. The Tarik Skubal trade backs this up. Other contenders could have offered a package for him as well.

- Numerous teams are showing that payroll is not always a precursor for success. The Tampa Bay Rays (23rd payroll) and the Milwaukee Brewers (19th payroll) per Spotrac 2026 Team Salaries, are prime examples. Both teams currently sit 1st in their respective leagues and both are run by smart, crafty front offices.

- Vladdy is trending towards the wrong side of history. He has not hit a home run at Rogers Centre since September 24, 2025 (playoffs not included). This is an anomaly at roughly 290+ calendar days.

- Inter-division trades, especially with the calibre of player that Adley Rutschman is, do not happen often. Just a few years ago, he was supposed to be an integral piece of Baltimore's future. The Boston Red Sox have been red hot since an abysmal start to the season, does this addition make them a favorite  in the American league?

- The New York Yankees picked up the type of hitter the Jays needed, with Luis García Jr. At the time of the trade, he was leading the National League in slugging percentage through the first half of the season. 

- The Cy Young Award Voting is heating up. Dylan Cease and Cam Schlittler are neck and neck in the AL with Jacob Misiorowski leading the pack. Chris Sale and Cristopher Sánchez are both in the running as well. Who do you have taking home the hardware?

- Freddy Peralta was picked up by the Tampa Bay Rays to help boost their starting rotation. Will he be a difference maker down the home stretch for the Rays? 

- Is there anyone outside of Chavez Ravine that can stop the three-peat? At the time of writing, the Dodgers have lost 8 of their last 9 games, but all teams go on cold streaks. In the NL, I think the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies pose the biggest hurdle to the Dodgers. In the AL, I think the Rays are the only real hurdle for the Dodgers.

Dylan Cease & Cam Schlittler Player Comparison Tool via Baseball Savant