History Says Only This One Wild Card Team Can Win The World Series
World Series Champions since 2011
Major League Baseball has the longest season in major American professional sports. It’s the ultimate test of longevity and consistency. What I appreciate about a 162-game season is the data it gives us. Such a large sample size gives us strong grounds to make predictions.
I gathered stats from the last 14 World Series winners, from 2011 to 2025 (excluding the Dodgers in 2020). I compared major stats to identify characteristics that have been consistent with winning. See the results above.
First off, that 2017 Astros team was unbelievable. The best batting average, OPS, wRC+, ISO and fWAR among the last 14 champs. Also the 2015 Royals are an anomaly, by far the lowest fWAR (21.8) and walk rate (6.3%).
I added in the range and average for each of the categories. Next, I took the teams in the current playoff picture and compared their numbers to the past champs. What I found was a little surprising. Here’s a look at the current playoff picture after the games on Friday had concluded.
2026 Playoff Team Statistics
Although the Rangers and Diamondbacks are not in the current playoff picture, it’s possible, so I included them in this analysis. The Rangers are tied with the Astros, however Houston has the tiebreaker. Arizona is just one game back of the Phillies, and also holds the tiebreaker.
As you can see, the only Wild Card team that fits within the range of the past 14 World Series winners is the Chicago Cubs. Of course, it’s possible that we get a winner who sets a new threshold – but it’s unlikely. The last team to do so was the Braves in 2021 (.244 batting average, 99 wRC+ & 24%K).
Not only are the Cubs within the range of the previous champs in all categories, but they are also above the average in the following: wRC+, OBP, BB%, ISO & fWAR. They are the ONLY team this year above the average fWAR.The other teams that fall into the stat ranges of the previous champs are the Brewers and Dodgers.
The Cubs have had a tremendous season after losing in five games to the Brewers in the NLDS last season. Chicago has a high-powered offense that has produced the league-leading wRC+ of 114. They have hit the third most home runs in the MLB, trailing only the Yankees and Astros.
That offense is led by NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong. PCA has put together a 40-40 season, becoming just the 7th member of that elite club. He tops all players in fWAR by a wide margin while continuing to be the best defensive centerfielder in the game.
Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images
The determining factor for the fate of the Cubs will be their pitching. In the 2025 NLDS, the Cubs arms gave up 16 runs in the first two games of the series, which ultimately made the hole too hard to climb out of. They’ll make a point of emphasis to not start out like that again.
They will need Shota Imanaga (2.18 ERA in September), Matthew Boyd (1.66 career ERA in Postseason) and the rest of the pitching staff to come up big. Their bullpen has been a rollercoaster all season – take a look at their ERA by inning:
9th: 2.81
8th: 4.98
7th: 3.30
In the first round, the Cubs are likely to face the Padres in a repeat matchup from a year ago. The Padres have produced the fewest runs of any NL playoff team, but have been much better in the second half with a 41-22 record, second best in the MLB. If the Cubs can get past the Padres, they’ll be set up for another rematch with the Brewers in the NLDS.
In a unique way, the Padres were actually just one metric away from joining the Cubs as the second Wild Card team to align with the previous champs. If it wasn’t for a team .243 batting average, only one point below the 2021 Braves .244 average.
History likes this Wild Card matchup.
About the Author:
Cody Hamilton is the writer behind The Data Dugout that launched at the end of 2025. As a lifelong fan of baseball, he writes with the goal to educate and foster a real community of readers behind his words and stories. He writes in-depth player and prospect analysis articles, along with pieces that analyze front office moves, and highlights classic baseball stories that make the game unique.