Previewing Braves vs. Phillies
Photo by Braves Media staff
The Braves have been a power-heavy, pitching-fueled machine all season. Ever since that brawl where Walt Weiss tackled Jorge Soler, Atlanta’s been great! The Phillies have been a mix of great young pitching and a veteran offense. Bryce Harper will get you! So what’s the path for these two star-studded teams?
The Phillies’ Path To Victory
As long as the Eagles stay good, the City of Brotherly Love won’t think much about baseball this October unless the Phillies give them a reason to. Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies have ended Atlanta’s postseason twice in the last five years, and they can do it again.
The mission is clear in Pennsylvania: pitch really well. Zack Wheeler is the ace, and can take it toe-to-toe with Chris Sale for revenge over the 2024 Cy Young. Cristopher Sánchez can show you just how well his sinker/changeup works from the left side and has a 2.91 ERA on the season. Jesús Luzardo’s availability as a full-leash starter remains questionable after shoulder concerns following a complete game shutout of the Atlanta Braves. Here’s the thing – Philly absolutely has the talent to wipe the floor with the Braves pitching-wise, but Zack Wheeler pitched on Sunday to get the Phillies into the postseason, so Game 1 lines up as likely No. 2 Cy Young finisher Chris Sale and Andrew Painter, who has a 5.40 ERA despite an elite fastball and a 7-pitch mix.
The Phillies will really look to map out 27 outs this series. Wheeler should be available on short rest to get Game 3, and Sánchez should be fully available. The goal is a decent start to Jhoan Duran, who’s been lights out. Aaron Nola, Jonathan Bowlan, Brooks Raley, and Tim Mayza will need to quell Atlanta’s offense.
The bats need to work outside of Schwarbs and Harper anyways. Luis Arraez and Alec Bohm will likely be integral in putting pressure on Atlanta’s starters. The Phillies can either take the game with hall-of-fame homers or by quieting a hot-and-cold offense with great pitching. Both work.
Photo by Mitchell Leff
Atlanta’s Path To Victory
Get 24 outs across three games. Those at-bats between Harper and Schwarber are the goal. Atlanta has great arms in Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, Robert Suarez, Tyler Mahle, and Chris Sale, but outside of them the swing-and-miss comes infrequently. For the most part, Atlanta’s other arms will be AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes, and the boys. Braves pitching needs to be locked down against Philly again,which is very possible given just how effective this staff has been. Say Game 1 is a 2-1 ballgame. Chris Sale for 6.0, Fuentes for 1.0, Suarez for 1.0, and then hand the ball to the veteran Iglesias. It’s pretty textbook pitching-wise.
Photo by Braves Media staff
The Atlanta offense is the X-factor. They must jump on the average-ish Phillies bullpen. The Braves have one of the worst offenses against starting pitchers, but they absolutely nuke bullpens. They’ve hung a loss on Duran already this season. Elite Phillies starters and weak Atlanta bats will probably make the Braves’ first 5.0 innings painful to watch in Georgia. If they can get to even one of the Philly relievers, they can almost certainly scratch across enough runs via the long ball to overpower whatever production Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can put together.
Game 3 is a big fat question mark for both teams, so the Braves will want to put Philly down in Game 1 behind their ace and end Aaron Nola’s season in Game 2 behind deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle. Philadelphia will look to do the opposite by proving why they build a team around two superstars and an ace-filled pitching staff. If the Cubs and Padres game is a dogfight, this is a little more like a snowball fight. Fitting given the nor’easter.
Other Factors?
Atlanta has a 9-4 record against the Phillies and played them multiple times in September, so it looks like the Braves will just look to do more of the same at home. Chris Sale will also never buy his own drink in Boston again for his work in the 2018 World Series. He’s a proven postseason hero.
The Phillies want to be the poison pill for Atlanta yet again. The Braves have a history of being suffocated in the Wildcard round by the Phils in 2022 and 2024. Their historic 2023 offense was ice cold and was thrown overboard by the Padres. We’re yet to see Austin Riley or Acuña flip the switch that makes Atlanta the best team in baseball, but the same can be said about Trea Turner and Andrew Painter. Neither of these teams are at their very best, but neither team wants to walk home to say the other ended their season. As a (highly unbiased) Braves fan, this rivalry was the story of the season especially given the Mets were umm… the Mets.
About the Author: This article was produced for Painting Corners by Ransom Fassett, you can find more of his work here.