Previewing Cubs vs. Padres
Photo by Meg McLaughlin
Both teams absolutely have what it takes for this dogfight, but the series will be won or lost along two very different paths.l
Cubs’ Path to Victory
The offense will have to take this one. Ben Brown, Cade Horton, and a number of relievers will all be on the injured list through the postseason. Edward Cabrera has elite stuff but hasn’t put it together in a bullpen role. Daniel Palencia can get it done (albeit with a 1.21 WHIP), and Ryan Zeferjahn has proven effective despite 6th percentile walks allowed. Oof. The Cubs will have to show they can keep the offensive production up throughout the postseason or face early elimination in San Diego.
That’s possible! Despite a wild ride of a season, the Cubs are 3rd in homers, 1st in RBIs, 6th in batting average, and 1st in OPS.
They’re naturally anchored by the likely MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, who will finish a 40-40 campaign and hit leadoff this postseason. Alex Bregman clearly doesn’t care that his face is fractured with his 2-homer game to end the season. Seiya Suzuki is a great right-handed bat to have at the top of the order. Nico Hoerner has continued his campaign of consistent low-K production too.
Photo by Meg McLaughlin
The Cubs offense can absolutely jump on the Padres weak pitching staff. Casey Mize hasn’t worked out, Walker Buehler has a 4.63 ERA, and Robbie Ray doesn’t exactly have the peripherals needed to sustain a 3.59 ERA.
Suppressing San Diego bats isn’t impossible either, Kevin Gausman will be key given his extremely recent postseason pedigree with the Jays.
The Padres’ best starter is Michael King, who’s proven excellent at preventing hard contact albeit without the dominance of 2024.
The Cubs goal is to jump on whichever starter is unfortunate enough to have to face PCA multiple times. The Padres starters are good at their very best, and things are remarkably shaky after Michael King. A crooked number before the 6th inning is exactly how the Cubs take this home.
Padres’ Path to Victory
Take the lead. That’s it. The Cubs starting rotation isn’t much better (especially given Shota Imanaga will be unavailable after pitching game 162). This offense has Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and enough competent hitters to get to likely Cubs starter Kevin Gausman.
Pete Crow-Armstrong will get his. Alex Bregman will get his. The concern is the Padres stars being asteroids instead of hydrogen-fusing space monsters. The goal isn’t to answer five runs, it’s to keep the game close enough that AJ Preller’s bullpen can go ballistic.
San Diego has the nuclear option when they’re at home. Games can effectively be shortened to five innings if they can take the lead. Yuki Matsui has a 1.83 ERA and one of the most aggressive lefty fastballs in the league, Bradgley Rodriguez has been an amazing setup option along with soon-to-be free agent Adrián Morejón. I’ve never been more confident in saying game over if it gets to the 8th. This wildcard matchup could be because of a certain Mason Miller. 38 saves, the best slider in MLB, and strikeouts for nearly half the batters he faces. Miller is possibly the most fearsome postseason reliever since Mariano Rivera, and there is no hyperbole. The Padres proving they can either quell the Cubs offense or just outscore the mediocre starters will be the key. All of North Side will be quaking if Mr. Miller jogs out of the bullpen.
Photo by Meg McLaughlin (excellent photography!)
So… who’s got it?
If Michael King and the boys can quiet the Cubs offense, Tatis Jr. and Machado should be able to get to a lead so that the Pitching Ninja gets to make another Padres bullpen compilation.
If the league’s best offense can stay hot enough to push this one over the edge before the late innings, the game is probably over.
Overall, this Wild Card matchup will be based on whichever team gets to play its A-game. The Cubs want to put a ball on top of the Western Supply Co., and the Padres want to let Miller work for his $4.00 million arbitrated salary.
Other Factors?
The Cubs finished their season with Boston a couple miles from the Atlantic, so they’ll have a long, long flight to play the Padres away pretty late at night too. Petco Park also suppresses offensive production (26th on Statcast park factors), but then again the Cubs have played MLB’s best defense all season so it probably won’t matter anyways.
The Padres are also extremely hot right now, and they’ve gone 39-17 in the second half. Could be a tough matchup.
About the Author: This article was produced by Ransom Fassett for Painting Corners, you can find more of his work here.