Phillies and Pirates AAA Teams Meet in Indianapolis
Victory Field, Indianapolis, IN; via Michael L. Skupin
As the MLB’s trade deadline quickly creeps in, the Pirates and Phillies may both be buyers. The Phillies are sitting in the second wild card spot while the Pirates are right in the thick of the hunt too. The Phillies’ wishlist includes a RHH OF (perhaps Orioles’ Taylor Ward, switch-hitting Cubs’ Ian Happ, or Angels’ Jo Adell), a back end rotation arm (although rumors continue the front office is potentially seeking Tigers’ Tarik Skubal), and bullpen help (LHP and RHP). As for the trade pieces, the Phillies, with a farm system ranked in the bottom half of the league, do not feature many prospects in AAA who could be dealt. The “strength” of the Phillies system is mostly in the lower minors. The ascent of RHP Ramon Marquez and C/1B Alirio Ferrebus has given the Phillies a few more trade chips in a potential deal.
In surprising news, former top prospect RHP Andrew Painter has been mentioned in trade rumors. Painter broke camp with the Phillies in the spring but had trouble finding success while in the majors. He was demoted last month, but has seemingly started to figure some things out with the Iron Pigs. Prior to Sunday’s game against the Pirates AAA affiliate, the Indians, Painter’s AAA 5.60 ERA was a bit skewed because of a blowup on July 10th against Columbus (Guardians AAA), when he allowed 7 earned runs in 2.2 innings. He walked 4 batters in that game. Removing the Columbus start, Painter’s 4 other starts (including Sunday’s start) saw the right-hander produce the following stats: 21 IP, 5 ER, 4 BB, 24 SO, 2.14 ERA.
AAA Stats by Prospect Savant
Sunday was a much better day for Painter. He cruised through 6 innings, allowing 5 hits, 0 walks, and 1 earned run and while striking out 6 batters. The Iron Pigs, aided by 5 errors, jumped to a 9-1 lead, with the Indians only run coming from a solo HR from Termarr Johnson. Yet, in the bottom of the 9th, the home team made it interesting. The Indians scored 8 runs, including 4 runs with 2 outs. Home runs by Duce Gourson and Mitch Jebb helped rile up the fans at Victory Field. Ultimately, with the tying run on 2nd base, the Indians comeback bid fell short and the Iron Pigs prevailed in victory. Painter was countered on the mound by LHP Connor Wietgrefe. Wietgrefe, while not considered a highly ranking prospect, leads all Pirates MiLB pitchers in innings pitched this year, with 102.1 innings. His peripherals are solid, with a 3.34 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 22.2% K rate, and 7.6% BB rate. He would keep the Iron Pigs lineup in check on Sunday, going 5 innings and allowing 7 baserunners and allowing 2 earned runs. He struck out 4 batters in the losing effort. It would not be surprising to see Wietgrefe get a call to the majors at some point this year, especially if there is an injury in the starting rotation.
The Iron Pigs offense was paced by 1B Keaton Anthony. The former NCAA Gold Glove winner went 3-5 with a run scored to improve his season line to .278/.341/.444/.785 in 40 AAA games. Former Pirates farmhand Liover Peguero also picked up 2 hits and added an RBI and a run. Peguero, a glove-first SS, was once seen as potentially the Pirates SS of the future but he accrued -0.6 bWAR across 162 MLB games and 315 PAs.
Player Highlight
Indians 2B Termarr Johnson was the 4th overall pick by the Pirates in the 2022 draft. Drafted from an Atlanta area high school, the high school shortstop was scouted as having a 70 grade hit tool (with some scouts rating it as high as 80) with 60 grade future power. His profile hinged on elite bat-to-ball skills and enough speed to have 30-30 potential. These tools made Johnson one of the best high school player prospects in recent memory (per MLB.com). Once drafted, he was seen as a top 50 prospect, ranking #26 according to MLB, #31 per Baseball Prospectus, and #49 by Baseball America. The sky seemed to be the limit for Johnson.
Johnson is now in his fifth season of minor league baseball and the progress has been a bit of a grind. Yes, he just turned 22 years old and is starting in AAA but he’s no longer ranked in any notable top 100 list. You’d be hard-pressed to find him in anybody’s top 200-300 list either. In 484 minor league games and spanning 2,080 plate appearances, he’s hit 51 HR and 78 XBH. He’s stolen 90 bases in 117 attempts (77% success rate). With a manageable career K rate of 22.5% and a good career BB rate at 16.6%, there is still promise in the bat.
Currently, according to FanGraphs, Johnson’s hit tool grades out as a 30 with a potential for 50; current 45 grade power, potential 50; speed 50 grade; and 40 fielding grade, potential 45. With that, Johnson’s wRC+ at AAA this year is 75 in 86 career AAA games. There’s plenty of time for Johnson to figure it out, as there aren’t many Pirates prospects who are immediately pushing him for playing time in AAA. Progress isn’t linear and not every prospect is mashing in the majors at age 20-21 like former teammate Konnor Griffin. But a career minor league slash line of .241/.374/.383/.757 slows down the hype train.
Johnson’s AAA stats; source TJ Stats
Farm System Check-In
The Pirates have seen turnover with their AAA team with some prospects graduating to the Majors, but their farm remains the envy of most teams across the league. Like most teams, it’s difficult to imagine the Pirates trading any of their top 5 prospects unless they receive a talented, controllable player in return. Even then, with four of their top five ranking amongst the top 100 in the sport, unless there’s a blockbuster in play, the crown gems of the system will remain. But for an organization as cheap as Pittsburgh’s, it’s likely a longshot that any of the top ten in the system get dealt, as young players with several years of cheap team control are immensely valuable. That said, here’s a list of the Pirates’ notable prospects and how they’ve fared in the Minor Leagues this year.
[Formatted as team prospect aggregate ranking; position; player; level]
Pirates Pitchers:
#19; Levi Sterling (A)
84 IP; 4.50 ERA; 5.01 FIP; 1.17 WHIP; 27.2 K%; 9.3 BB%
#13; Khristian Curtis (AA/AAA)
78 IP; 5.08 ERA; 4.56 FIP; 1.40 WHIP; 28.7 K%; 12.3 BB%
#20; Antwone Kelly (AAA)
77.2 IP; 4.29 ERA; 5.72 FIP; 1.40 WHIP; 16.4 K%; 10.6 BB%
#1; Seth Hernandez (A+)
74 IP; 2.43 ERA; 3.55 FIP; 1.05 WHIP; 40.4 K%; 10.6 BB%
#26; Tom Harrington (AAA)
62.2 IP; 6.18 ERA; 5.15 FIP; 1.58 WHIP; 20.2 K%; 9.9 BB%
#16; Reinold Navarro (A)
57.2 IP; 2.34 ERA; 3.76 FIP; 1.39 WHIP; 39.7 K%; 20.6 BB%
#9; Hunter Barco (AAA)
46 IP; 4.89 ERA; 4.61 FIP; 1.57 WHIP; 23.3 K%; 11.2 BB%
Pirates Batters:
#3; 3B Murf Gray (recently promoted to AA and a fast riser in prospect rankings)
PA: 399
wOBA: .442
SLG: .606
OPS: 1.013
wRC+: 154
BB%: 11.5
K%: 19
Gray’s AA stats (40 PA) via Prospect Savant; As evidenced, big time hit + power tools but big swing & miss concerns
#29; 1B Callan Moss (AA)
PA: 376
wOBA: .328
SLG: .381
OPS: .721
wRC+: 94
BB%: 9.0
K%: 23.4
1B Jared Jones (A+)
PA: 275
wOBA: .425
SLG: .504
OPS: .937
wRC+: 142
BB%: 15.6
K%: 28.7
OF Lonnie White Jr. (AA)
PA: 341
wOBA: .398
SLG: .534
OPS: .913
wRC+: 134
BB%: 13.8
K%: 30.2
#25; SS Wilton Guerrero Jr. (DSL)
PA: 123
wOBA: .432
SLG: .429
OPS: .855
wRC+: 125
BB%: 12.2
K%: 12.2
#22; C/1B Axiel Plaz (A+)
PA: 286
wOBA: .395
SLG: .484
OPS: .877
wRC+: 124
BB%: 9.8
K%: 18.5
#7; Easton Carmichael (recently promoted to AA)
PA: 344
wOBA: .377
SLG: .513
OPS: .861
wRC+: 113
BB%: 6.7
K%: 18.0
#12; SS Yordanny De Los Santos (A+)
PA: 272
wOBA: .381
SLG: .541
OPS: .879
wRC+: 115
BB%: 7.7
K%: 29.0
#2; OF Edward Florentino (A+)
PA: 313
wOBA: .378
SLG: .480
OPS: .845
wRC+: 113
BB%: 16.6
K%: 27.2
#11; C/1B Rafael Flores Jr. (AAA)
PA: 276
wOBA: .335
SLG: .342
OPS: .704
wRC+: 95
BB%: 16.7
K%: 25.0
#21; 2B Termarr Johnson (AAA)
PA: 362
wOBA: .305
SLG: .311
OPS: .638
wRC+: 76
BB%: 15.7
K%: 25.1
While still very young, feels like he could be a change of scenery candidate.
Phillies Pitchers:
#1; Gage Wood (A/AA)
IP: 63.2
ERA: 3.68
FIP: 3.93
WHIP: 1.12
K%: 36.2
BB%: 8.5
#17; Cody Bowker (A+)
IP: 62.2
ERA: 4.88
FIP: 3.76
WHIP: 1.05
K%: 34.9
BB%: 9.2
#3; Ramon Marquez (A+)
IP: 54.0
ERA: 1.83
FIP: 2.37
WHIP: 0.81
K%: 42.0
BB%: 8.8
Marquez’s A+ stats via Prospect Savant; I think he’s the likeliest and most attractive realistic trade option
#14; Matthew Fisher (A)
IP: 36.2
ERA: 4.17
FIP: 4.64
WHIP: 1.20
K%: 26.4
BB%: 8.8
#15; Cade Obermueller (A)
IP: 35.2
ERA: 2.78
FIP: 3.62
WHIP: 1.46
K%: 35.3
BB%: 11.5
#23; Alex McFarlane (AA; recently promoted to MLB)
IP: 35.0
ERA: 2.06
FIP: 3.23
WHIP: 1.17
K%: 32.9
BB%: 12.6
#19; Wen-Hui Pan (AA)
IP: 28.2
ERA: 3.45
FIP: 3.85
WHIP: 1.40
K%: 25.0
BB%: 7.0
Realistic trade bait, especially due to his appearance in the 2026 Future’s Game.
Pan’s A+ stats via Prospect Savant; I think he’s the other realistic trade option
Phillies Batters:
#4; OF Francisco Renteria (DSL)
PA: 166
wOBA: .507
SLG: .636
OPS: 1.100
wRC+: 167
BB%: 13.9
K%: 15.1
SS Juan Parra (DSL)
PA: 179
wOBA: .493
SLG: .496
OPS: .988
wRC+: 160
BB%: 22.3
K%: 15.1
#9; C/1B Alirio Ferrebus (recently promoted to A+)
PA: 307
wOBA: .405
SLG: .520
OPS: .895
wRC+: 130
BB%: 5.2
K%: 13.0
Ferrebus has shot up prospect lists this year. Along with Marquez, feels like Ferrebus is trade bait.
#16; SS Bryan Rincon (AA)
PA: 355
wOBA: .383
SLG: .479
OPS: .862
wRC+: 125
BB%: 15.8
K%: 20.6
Rincon is a glove first SS who has surprised this year with his bat. Rincon feels like a realistic trade target.
#20; OF Griffin Burkholder (recently promoted to A+)
PA: 271
wOBA: .362
SLG: .408
OPS: .763
wRC+: 104
BB%: 10.7
K%: 28.0
#7; 2B Aroon Escobar (AA)
PA: 410
wOBA: .296
SLG: .302
OPS: .626
wRC+: 70
BB%: 12.0
K%: 16.6
The bat first 2B was a fringe top 100 prospect last year. His tough 2026 season has seen him slide down some lists.
It’s a delicate balance to decide which prospects to trade and which to keep during the trade deadline. For the Pirates, they could be just entering a contention window. As for the Phillies, they have an aging core and this year may prove to be their “last and best” chance to advance to a World Series. The FO may decide to empty the cupboards to beef up the major league roster. Either way, it’s a decision that will be heavily scrutinized with ramifications going well beyond this season.
Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski; via Heavy.com